The long and the short of it

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A feature of Blackpool’s football under Ian Holloway has been the quick tap free kick as they start another passing sequence instead of a clogging of a high ball forward deep in to the opposition half. When Craig Cathcart made an error in gifting a quickly taken free kick to Wigan in the run up to their opening goal, not only were Blackpool on their way to a 3-1 defeat, but it encapsulated where Blackpool may have been going wrong of late.

Territorial

When speaking about Cathcart’s error in his column in the Independent on Sunday Ian Holloway made the following statement which has revealed something rather interesting;

‘We had a set-piece in the middle of the pitch and I’m sat in the dugout expecting us to wait till we get our big men forward, then hit a high ball into the box and put our opponents under pressure’.

This seems a rather odd statement from Holloway given his penchant for passing football. It sounds very much like he wants to get the ball in the box and work things out from there, not a very sophisticated approach. Cathcart can be blamed for such a poor pass in gifting Wigan the lead, but at the heart of that he is caught between two minds, two philosophies and one of them just doesn’t resonate with Blackpool. It would appear that Ian Holloway has been working on long ball free kicks as a clear set piece, usually involving Ian Evatt taking up a position in the opposition box whilst Charlie Adam delivers the high free kick.

Spanish Inquisition

There’s nothing wrong in this approach per se, but it doesn’t seem to be right given that Blackpool are on the slide and they’re aiming for the Spanish nirvana of tiki-taka. Early season games were characterised by quickly taken free kicks and sustained periods of possession. As stated on this blog previously Blackpool’s passing has been declining for some time now, many a reason could be behind this, but what if the key here is that they are giving the ball away too cheaply through long free kicks. If that is the case, then answers are needed to the following two questions;

1. Have Blackpool taken more long free kicks over recent weeks?

2. What is the impact of a long free kick on Blackpool’s matches?

Increasingly long

In order to establish if Blackpool are taking more longer free kicks, each free kick they’ve taken this season has been looked at and characterised in to short, long in to the box and other. In doing so the following pattern emerged.

Going long more often as the season progresses.

As you can see the number of long free kicks* that Blackpool have taken over the course of the season has grown and grown. As an observer, the Liverpool game appeared to be the first time that Blackpool consciously halted play prior to the taking of a free kick so that Ian Evatt could take up his position in the box. It may have always been a part of Blackpool’s game plan, but it was the Liverpool game that made it appear more pronounced and the statistics seems to back that up. In fact in the last four games Blackpool have 15 attempted long free kicks, to put that in to perspective it took them twenty-two games to amount that many from the start of the season. To further back up this increased long approach the % of free kicks hit long prior to the Liverpool game averaged out at 8% and has risen to 25% since then.

Transition to extinction

So Blackpool are going long from their free kicks which is not an issue on the face of it as many teams employ this approach. It gives you territorial advantage, a chance to pick up a knock down, a chance to score, a chance to build play in the final third. All of these are valid reasons for doing so, however, there’s something not right about this when it comes to Blackpool. It flies in the face of Holloway’s philosophy of short passing, but tactically it is a decision he has made and clearly now expects. Perhaps it grew from the fact that Blackpool started to score goals from set pieces, more than any other team in the Premier League prior to the Aston Villa game back in February. In fact the winning goal against Liverpool came from a high ball (not a free kick) in to the box which Ian Evatt knocked back for DJ Campbell to score.

What this approach also does is make a poor defence even poorer due to the removal of a key defensive player. A centre back going up for a corner can always be a risk, but cover is always provided. A free kick will mean that Blackpool will almost double the amount of times they need to provide defensive cover. Just a quick glance at the second goal that Sunderland scored at Bloomfield Road gives you the perfect example of where this risk has been punished. Teams in the Premier League spend hours rehearsing what they will do in transition as their defence turns in to attack. Blackpool are poor in their attack to defence transition and this has been exploited time after time by clinical teams this season.

Tapping up

Whilst Ian Holloway might be intending to do the right thing with long free kicks, it may well be weakening his side leaving them exposed to attack and in possession of the ball for less time. If Blackpool continue this long approach then they will be hoping that it helps them win games, at the moment that case seems to be some distance off and in fact Blackpool may well have start to taking short free kicks again to build play and also to give them more defensive assurance. However, should their long free kicks persist then they best be working on getting their shape back quickly as you can be sure that every manager between now and the end of the season will be working very hard to exploit Blackpool in transition passages of play.

*For the purposes of this article a long free kick was defined as a free kick that is taken from the defensive and middle thirds, landing in to the opponents penalty area.

Error Prone – Blackpool 1 – 3 Wigan

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Wigan took the points as they turned in a composed performance, taking advantage of chances handed to them by Blackpool. Blackpool on the other hand will want to forget this error strewn match as Ian Holloway continues his search for a settled first eleven.

Setting up

Overloading the apparent weakness.

The team selection for Blackpool centred on the return of Matt Gilks in goal and the restoration of Neil Eardley at right back with Elliot Grandin coming in to the midfield. For Blackpool the problem from the Arsenal game remained how to compensate for the loss of David Vaughan. In truth no one really covered his position providing Blackpool with the same gap in their balance that caused them problems against Arsenal i.e. there’s not enough cover for the defence nor disruption of the opposition midfield. Wigan were somewhere between a 4-1-4-1 and a 4-5-1, with Steve Gohouri coming in for the suspended Maynor Figueroa. Roberto Martinez asked Ben Watson and James McCarthy to sit deeper than Mohamed Diame who appeared to be asked to play higher up the pitch. Presumably to apply pressure to Charlie Adam in the deep.

Plain speaking

Tactically the game itself was pretty plain from Blackpool’s perspective. Presumably the individual errors took away and coherency from their play and didn’t allow them to execute their game plan. One element that was clearly not apparent, which seemed obvious, was to target the left back Steve Gohouri who may have found an appearance at left back somewhat uncomfortable.

However, it was Martinez who made the most distinctive tactical moves. Firstly, as mentioned above, stationing Diame higher up the pitch to pressurise Charlie Adam and deny him the space that he thrives on. The other tactical element that Martinez appeared to bring to the game was to focus Wigan’s play down their left flank. Blackpool’s right back area is one of concern for Ian Holloway and his constant switching between Eardley and Alex Baptiste shows his doubt about the position. Whilst Wigan didn’t really get a lot of joy down the left, they were confident on passing the ball about in that zone of the pitch, Tom Cleverley, N’Zogbia and Diame all focused their passing and running in to that area and that can be seen in the high concentration of passes on the chalkboard below.

Left, left, left, right, left (repeat to fade)

Back to three

The major piece of tactical intrigue from Ian Holloway came when the game was dead, therefore the value of his change must be tempered by that fact, however, it is well worth noting what he tried. After his triple substitution failed to change the game within his normal framework he pushed Neil Eardley in to central midfield turning Blackpool in to a 3-5-2. Arguably Blackpool’s system has been exposed in recent weeks as the player at the tip of the midfield triangle has either been squeezed out of play by the opposition or the player hasn’t played well. If either of these or both happen then Blackpool’s system becomes more predictable. The shift to a 3-5-3 flattened the midfield three bringing in Eardley who is more competent on the ball in to the area of the pitch that Blackpool had surrendered to Wigan through poor displays from Keith Southern and Charlie Adam. The shift to this system gave Blackpool more control and composure in the centre. Whether this system would work elsewhere isn’t clear, what is clear is that Neil Eardley could well play more games in the centre of midfield and this is something that has been toyed with for a while as Holloway tried him in central midfield during pre-season.

Watson in control

Another point to note is that while Charlie Adam is heading to the PFA Awards he will be left to reflect on a game where he was outplayed by Ben Watson. Watson dominated the centre of the pitch winning all 9 of his duels, passing efficiently and breaking up play with 4 interceptions.

Wigan gained control of the centre through Ben Watson.

All too often since the turn of the year has Charlie Adam been wasteful in possession which could be through his own drop in performance, opposition pressure or lack of cohesion from his team mates taking away the platform which he usually performs well upon. From the chalkboard below the red streaks of failed passes dominate as his pass completion drop to 53%

Keeping it simple

Charlie Adam was wasteful and Ben Watson showed how to retain possession and stringing his side together. However, as individual performances go Tom Cleveley was safe in possession and Charles N’Zogbia showed the direct running and link up play that make him a very dangerous player when he wants to be.

No bite

The final point to make is that without David Vaughan Blackpool are even weaker in defensive passages of play and struggle to break up the opposition. Wigan were superb in their passing, but also superb in breaking up Blackpool’s play with 19 interceptions. Blackpool’s error will have contributed to this, but Blackpool had no answer to this only being able to make 9 interceptions themselves.

No contest. A fine smattering versus a splutter.

Moving on

Blackpool need to be much better off and on the ball in their final few games working harder to disrupt teams as well as cutting out errors and recovering better from those that they make. Wigan will be happy with three points, but they will have harder tests than this and will need Ben Watson, Charles N’Zogbia and Tom Cleverley to keep building play in the final third order to threaten better teams.

Season So Far: The Run-In (Part Two)

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Six games to go and not surprisingly the relegation picture has changed quite significantly since my first look at the run-in. Four games ago I believed that eight sides were involved in the relegation battle. Of those teams, I was bold enough to condemn both Wigan and West Brom to the drop, being undecided about the third club who may join them in the Championship. While Wigan are very much still involved – indeed they currently sit rock bottom – West Brom, no doubt just to spite me, have confounded all expectations and probably secured safety with half a dozen games still to go.
Another team I’d factored into my original analysis was Fulham but a few decent results, including a win over the Seasiders, has seen them open up a bit of a gap to the bottom three. This leaves six sides who I believe will be battling between themselves to escape relegation. That’s not to say a different side will not plunge into the mix, as anyone from Newcastle (currently 9th) down may still require the odd point here and there to survive, but you’d think it would take a really poor run of results for one of them to sink.
Let’s take a look at the home and away fixtures for those sides who are in most danger at the moment.

Most striking in the above table are the imbalances in symmetry. Namely the game in hand for Birmingham, four home matches for Blackpool and four away fixtures for Wigan. However, before we get on to other sides’ fixtures, we’ll once more focus firstly on the Seasiders.
Home Is Where The Points Are For Blackpool?
It surely goes without saying that if ‘Pool are to survive, they will have to perform at Bloomfield Road. A great deal has been made in the media of Blackpool being a much better away side than at home, but it’s not a view I necessarily buy into. While the Seasiders have picked up slightly more points away from home – 18 as opposed to 15 – the points per game difference in negligible – 1.05 away in comparison to exactly 1 at home. 
In addition, whereas ‘Pool have sometimes capitulated on the road (Arsenal, Chelsea and Fulham to name just three), there have been very few home games in which the Seasiders have not competed (only West Ham and Birmingham instantly spring to mind). In fact Blackpool have been very unlucky to only have won four games at Bloomfield Road. When you consider that the remaining home fixtures are also far easier on paper than the daunting trips to White Hart Lane and Old Trafford you can see this so-called superior away record is largely a myth.
The first game up against the Latics is likely to set the tone for the remainder of the run-in. A victory for ‘Pool will raise spirits and build a solid foundation for the home games to come. A draw, or worse still a defeat will only increase the pressure on Ian Holloway’s side. After this follows the visit of a Newcastle side with little to play for, and then home matches with Stoke and Bolton, one of which will definitely have their minds elsewhere on a cup final. One has to think that a minimum of six points will be required from the four home games, if not slightly more. It’s certainly achievable, but you get the feeling the outcome of the Wigan match could be decisive.
The Other Bs
Both Blackburn and Birmingham currently have a three point cushion to the relegation zone, but this is by no means of any comfort to their supporters. For all that has been made of the Seasiders’ poor run of results, Blackburn have fared even worse in the last eight games, failing to win any of those, scoring only nine goals in the process. Two tough home matches against the blue and red halves of Manchester sandwich a local derby against Bolton – hardly the ideal set of fixtures for a team that has scored over two thirds of its points at Ewood Park.
Away from home Blackburn must face a resurgent Everton, followed by two massive six pointers against relegation rivals Wolves and West Ham. It’s hard to see how Blackburn can reverse their downward momentum, but based on their current points tally, four or more points from those last two away games could be enough to save them while condemning the opposition to the Championship.
In contrast, Birmingham will be targeting their games at St Andrews as the ones to rescue their season. Their next home game sees them take on a crisis-stricken Sunderland, while the other two home ties see them pitched up against notoriously bad travellers Wolves and Fulham. Should they fail to capitalise on these home fixtures though, the away games look anything but easy and it’s hard to envisage them getting much return on these four matches.
Bottom Three – Cut Adrift?
The three Ws who currently occupy the relegation places have varying prospects. Bottom side Wigan must play four of their remaining six games away from the DW Stadium, leaving them in an uphill struggle. On the plus side, none of their final set of fixtures come against top six opposition, but ultimately they have the most ground to make up and they realistically have to win at least half of their remaining games to stand a chance – a big ask for a club that has not won back-to-back games all season.
Back-to-back wins for West Ham over Liverpool and Stoke back in late February / early March looked to have buoyed the Hammers, but with only one point from a possible nine, they have been sucked right back into the scrap. The signing of Demba Ba, combined with the return to fitness of Thomas Hitzlsperger reinvigorated Avram Grant’s men, but it was not enough to steer them clear of trouble. The Irons will hope to take advantage of some kind home fixtures, but of their away games only Wigan looks like one from which they could get something.
Last but not least we come to Wolves. Mick McCarthy’s side have rightly won plaudits for the way they have played this season, especially against the top teams, including memorably taking the scalp of the previously unbeaten Manchester United. Failure to convert these performances into results against lower half opposition has left them vulnerable however, and a confidence-sapping 3-0 home defeat to Everton last week has put them in a precarious situation. Wolves’ fixtures, home and away, don’t seem to be that threatening, but these are precisely the games they have found difficult.
Place Your Bets Now
In what has been an unpredictable season, sticking my neck out and guessing who will have the privilege of visiting the Falmer Stadium next season is tricky. I’ve already proved myself wholly incapable of such a task by writing off West Brom who now seem to be safe only four games later. Not one to believe in jinxes though, I will make some loose predictions for the run-in:
  • Wigan will be relegated – Ok, so this is hardly an inventive pick, but as the current bottom side they will surely have too much distance to make up bearing in mind their dearth of home games. A win for the Latics at Bloomfield Road tomorrow though could change everything. Conversely, if they don’t win at Blackpool, it’s tough to see any way back for them.
  • Birmingham will survive – Despite the horrible away games they have to endure, they could take a giant leap towards safety tomorrow against a depleted and out-of-form Sunderland. Two other home games that also look kind on paper, as well as a headstart on the bottom three should see them safe.
  • Blackburn will occupy a relegation spot at some point – I’m not convinced Blackburn will be relegated, but I can see their season hinging on the games at West Ham and Wolves which fall towards the end of the season. They may have to win these games to lift themselves to safety.
  • Molineux will be the scene of last day relegation drama – A final day showdown between Wolves and Blackburn already seems to be an appetising prospect. The chances of both sides being safe before this game are slim, and it is likely one of them will say goodbye to the Premier League at Molineux on 22nd May.
I’m sure these views will change as the weeks go by, but I’m confident that at least three of the above will come true. What about the Seasiders though? With more than a hint of bias, I do genuinely believe that Blackpool will stay up. It may well be heart ruling head, but the upcoming home games give Holloway and his team a superb opportunity to retain Premier League status. That said, defeat to Wigan tomorrow, while not catastrophic, would be worrying. The next month or so is likely to result in an outbreak of insomnia, one suspects.
Not to rob readers who have made it this far of a full-blown prediction, I will suggest a potential bottom three, with the caveats that I hold no ill feeling towards the chosen sides, and that a bias towards Blackpool is no doubt an influencing factor! Here are the three I’m tipping for the drop:
  • Wigan Athletic
  • Blackburn Rovers
  • West Ham United

I’ll revisit this topic again in early May, when there should be more clarity to the relegation battle. Until then, sleep well and don’t have nightmares…

'Statting' the narrative

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The tactical elements of this game were covered very succinctly over on Zonal Marking, so this post is a brief look at the passing stats of the game and using them to back up the narrative set down by Zonal Marking.

The Narrative

Blackpool started brightly without ever troubling Arsenal who went on to score two goals before half-time. After half time Blackpool came out fast and worked hard and troubled Arsenal. Blackpool scored, then Arsenal reasserted their dominance scoring a third goal to put the game out of reach.

If you look at the pass completions of both sides and plot them on a graph against the time of the match does this show up?

Blackpool (tangerine) v Arsenal (red)

Yes it does, is the simple answer. You can see for yourself that Arsenal dominate in the pass, completing more passes than Blackpool and at a higher completion rate, then half time comes along and the lines scramble as Arsenal fall apart and Blackpool come back in to the game. Then the pattern is restored.

Vaughan Free

The other observation from the game centres around the lack of David Vaughan in the Blackpool side. This is something that Blackpool will have to cope with again in the game this Saturday and possibly for longer. Keith Southern came in to the side, a more recognised defensive minded midfielder. However, a replacement for David Vaughan he was not. Admittedly, a game against a team like Arsenal isn’t the best comparator, but Blackpool lacked midfield bite in the form of tackles on the ground and the interceptions that Vaughan contributes so effectively.

Wait! The match stats show that Blackpool had 8 interceptions! That’s about par for the course you say (Blackpool have averaged 11 interceptions per game this season). The key here is how many occurred late on the game when the match was dead. Only 2 of those 8 occurred in the key period of the game. Arsenal in comparison intercepted Blackpool steadily throughout the game to record 24 in total. See the chalkboard below.

Of Blackpools 8 match interceptions, 6 of them occurred in the last 7 mins.

Also, looking at the tackle count, the team won 30 and lost 31 tackles, however, Vaughan’s replacement, Southern chipped in with only 1 won tackle (aerial) and Adam and Jason Puncheon who formed the rest of the midfield three chipped in with 2 and 2 respectively. Vaughan on average has won 4 tackles per match this season. A big gap in the Blackpool midfield that needs to be filled when Wigan take to the Bloomfield Road pitch on Saturday.

Finally, if the interceptions and tackles don’t wash, then a quick glance at the first Arsenal goal (and the second to an extent) shows the absence of a midfielder tracking a midfield runner. Vaughan is usually so well positioned and as mentioned in a previous post, will track back to cover runs from the opposition midfield.

Mind the gap

Charlie Adam may well be going to the PFA awards dinner on Sunday, but the man on the treatment table holds the key to Blackpool’s survival in the Premier League. His level of performance has been exceptional, should Ian Holloway be to replace his industry and quality in his starting eleven then maybe the loss of Vaughan will not rock the boat too much. Fail to replace Vaughan and Blackpool will lose him forever (he is out of contract in the summer) as they face the new season in the Championship.

*Credit to Graham MacAree from We Ain’t Got No History for his help on Tableau, check out his blog and follow him on Twitter.

Seaside Strategy – Arsenal Home

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Another home match against a top team, another plucky effort without any reward. It’s hard to argue against Arsenal being worthy winners – the Gunners could have had a five or six goal advantage in the first half alone – but had key moments gone the other way, the end result could have been different. As it was, Arsenal kept 11 men on the pitch, Lee Mason failed to give a stonewall penalty and Keith Southern failed to properly connect with a free header from six yards out. Blackpool can take heart from the way they rattled Arsenal early in the second half, but ultimately ‘Pool contributed to their own downfall.
In terms of where Blackpool went wrong, Zonal Marking covered it pretty succinctly. A suicidally high defensive line was begging for trouble against an Arsenal side who exploit space so masterfully. When combined with a relative lack of pace in the Blackpool back-line, the Gunners had free reign and but for some profligate finishing and the woodwork, Arsenal would have been out of sight by half-time. The still below is just one example of Robin Van Persie getting in behind the ‘Pool offside trap, but it still didn’t prevent Ian Evatt and Alex Baptiste raising their arms in vain.

In the build-up to the first goal, ‘Pool were undone in similar circumstances. However, on this occasion while the Blackpool defenders were ball-watching, Abou Diaby was allowed to stroll in at the back post for a simple tap-in. It could be argued that Diaby’s run should have been tracked by a midfielder, but Ian Evatt failed to look over his shoulder once and this will surely have been looked at in the team post-mortem.

Trying to look for positives, January signing Jason Puncheon once again impressed. This time rather than playing in the forward three, he occupied the advanced midfield role typically belonging to Elliot Grandin. Of all the January signings, it is Puncheon who has shone where the others have disappointed. Ian Holloway is likely to have a battle on his hands to retain his services in the summer, as his performances have no doubt alerted other teams to his ability. In this game Puncheon showed his versatility by slotting in neatly for the absent Grandin. Puncheon got around the pitch well, and as the chalkboard below shows, achieved a high pass completion rate. 

 by Guardian Chalkboards

The on-loan Southampton man also displayed a cutting edge with an incisive pass to DJ Campbell in the build-up to Blackpool’s goal. However, despite the positives in Puncheon’s performance, there are still raw edges to Puncheon’s game. While the Seasiders started strongly and pressured the visitors in the first 10-15 minutes, Puncheon gave the ball away and within seconds ‘Pool were a goal down. The chalkboard below illustrates this.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

All in all this was not a game Blackpool were expected to take anything from. The previous day’s results had almost turned this into a ‘freebie’ of sorts, with anything being a bonus. The three home games to come will likely decide the Seasiders’ fate, but ‘Pool can learn from this defeat in both a defensive and attacking sense. Not all Premier League attacks are as quick or as clever as Arsenal’s, but this is a cautionary tale in operating such a high defensive line and may cause Holloway to rethink that strategy. 
In a more optimistic light, Blackpool continue to score goals at home, having done so in every league game since August ’09 and if this record can survive until the end of the season, ‘Pool have a great chance of retaining their top flight status. Of course, the odd clean sheet here and there would make this task a whole lot simpler. Fingers crossed ‘Pool can get that particular monkey off their back in a few days time at home to Wigan.

Intercepting a chalkboard

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This is what happens when you make too many interceptions

There are many aspects of football that fascinate, from wonder goals to the angled pass that opens up a seemingly impenetrable defence, however, very few people would say that the interception is something that stands out in 90 minutes of action. However, the humble interception is something that can be crucial, perfectly timed and treated with care can turn defence in to attack. With the availability of chalkboards, many writers have asserted the importance of interceptions as being a critical factor in the outcome of games. The location and frequency of them being the facets to hold in high regard. Intercept high up the pitch and the assumption is that the opposition is on the back foot and you have less distance to go to the opposition goal, keep on intercepting time after time and the opposition will struggle to get their rhythm going. What a chalkboard doesn’t tell you is the outcome of the interception. An interception that leads to a counter attack or retention of possession may possibly hold more weight than an interception that gives the ball back to the opposition, thus conceding any advantage you have just gained.

Definition

This post attempts to understand the outcome of the interceptions that you can see on the chalkboard below from the recent Fulham v Blackpool game. Why is this even important? It might be entirely erroneous, it might even be disregarded as irrelevant nonsense, however, it might just help to add that little bit of qualitative analysis to a graphic that can often tell a story that may or may not be apparent.

What is important to note is that this may not be the greatest example of how effective the interception is within a game, this is merely an illustration of trying to assign value to interceptions.

The interceptions in question

Video killed the interception

Looking at the video of the match each interception was viewed and assessed for its outcome, did the interceptor allow his team to retain possession and progress or was the ball given back to the opposition. The former was given a positive outcome and the latter, a negative outcome.

Location, location, location

What can be see immediately is that Fulham had more interceptions than Blackpool. You can see that they enjoyed one in the attacking third, but the majority occurred in the middle third and had 6 more in that third than Blackpool could muster. This was one factor cited in the match review which served to back up Fulham’s control of the central ground. Was that a hasty comment? An interception is what it is and they will have certainly disrupted Blackpool’s flow in the middle third, however, only 4 of those 10 had a positive outcome for Fulham. However, on the flip side, 6 of them were turned back over to Blackpool.

In the context of this game, those positive outcomes might be very important, however, outside of this game you would assume that the better a team and the better they perform then you might expect to see that ratio increase as defence turns to attack or possession once gained, becomes harder to surrender. What you can see below is the positive or negative outcomes assigned for each interceptions.

You could say that Blackpool’s inability to turn their interceptions to their advantage may well have an impact on their attempts to gain a foothold in the game. The majority of their interceptions were in the defensive third, so even though the chalkboard says they made an interception it really had less value than it might seem. In fact all 10 of their interceptions ended up back in the possession of Fulham without them gaining any advantage at all.

Making sense of it all

This might have proved nothing and been a waste of time, however, hopefully it sparks some interest and appreciation of the dimensions that chalkboards portray, but also of the nature of the interception within the game. The transistion phase is something mooted quite often in relation to football, the interception is one aspect of this and perhaps a team that uses the interceptions wisely may well enjoy more success. Obviously this example cannot prove that, but perhaps with the right inclination and time then this approach could be used across a wider sample involving teams of differing quality by someone with more intelligence. Whatever happens, Blackpool were wasteful when they intercepted in this game and lost the chance to catch Fulham out of position and gain an advantage.

Financially Speaking (Part Two)

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In the second of this two-part look at Blackpool FC’s finances from the financial year ending May 31 2010 we’ll examine more of how the club has conducted its business, and how the influx of Premier League money will impact the club in the future. Last time out we focused on:

  • Ownership
  • Losses and Negative Net Worth
  • Increasing Turnover
  • Stadium Development
Before continuing with this article, I would advise that you first read part one, which can be found here. This time round I’d like to examine the following:
  • Player Wages
  • Debt
  • Influx of Premier League Money
  • The Future

Player Wages

As with most items in the club’s accounts, it’s impossible to isolate the exact information for wages for the playing staff,  but it can be reasonably assumed that they form the majority portion of wages listed in the accounts. The chart below shows wages for the last four years (N.B £5m has been deducted from the 09/10 wages – the reported value of the promotion bonus – as it would unfairly skew the results)
Even after the £5m promotion bonus is deducted from the wages in 09/10, it can be seen that the wage bill was on a steady rise following promotion from League One, but the jump from 08/09 to 09/10 was almost double that of the rise from 07/08 to 08/09. Charlie Adam’s wages no doubt played a part here, just as the other high profile signings would have – Hameur Bouazza, Neal Eardley, Seamus Coleman (loan) and even Jason Euell are likely to have been earning more than comparable players from the previous season. When you also consider the performance-related pay that is widely reported to have been built into many of the players’ contracts, an increase in win and goal bonuses is an inevitable side-effect of a promotion season. It can’t be said that Blackpool gambled on winning promotion in the vein of other clubs, but in 09/10 they did perhaps extend themselves to their limit.
A common way of assessing if clubs are spending too much on wages is to compare this cost against turnover. While there are no caps in top divisions for what percentage of a club’s turnover can be spent on wages, anything much above 70% can be considered a little high – League Two operates a scheme whereby clubs have to limit this ratio to 60%.

In the four years shown, the arrival of Valeri Belokon before the 06/07 season saw ‘Pool throw a decent amount of money (by their own standards) at a successful promotion push, with the increased turnover of Championship football in 07/08 bringing the ratio down the following year. 08/09 saw Blackpool rely heavily on the loan market, resulting in a ratio around the 75% mark and the ratio for 09/10 remained relatively static, despite the 35% increase in turnover. Had the Seasiders not won promotion, Blackpool would surely have tried to reduce this ratio, although defeat at Wembley would have surely signalled the departure of Charlie Adam for a not insignificant transfer fee anyway, in turn affecting the wages.
One would anticipate that this ratio will drop dramatically on the 10/11 accounts, with a sharp increase in turnover as part of the Premier League’s huge television revenue.

Debt

That the club has been operating with a level of debt is nothing unusual in the football industry, but how much the club owes, and to whom, is a rather more complex issue. We have already established in part one that much of the club’s accounts portray a misty picture, and the same can be said of how the debts are illustrated. The group’s total liabilities over the last four years are shown below.

The group’s total debt has obviously sharply increased from 2008/09 (£15.4m) to 2009/10 (£27.2m), but in order to understand this it is necessary to drill down into the debt in more detail. Creditors are separated into two categories in the accounts – debts due within one year (current liabilities) and debts due after more than one year (long-term liabilities). First we’ll analyse the current liabilities – these are shown below.

An increase in the group’s current liabilities from £10.9m to £19.4m at first seems alarming, but on closer examination isn’t perhaps so bleak, not least because the incoming Premier League money dwarves this figure. Included in the current liabilities is the aforementioned £5m promotion bonus, which while accrued during the 09/10 season was infamously not paid until August 2010, much to the chagrin of the playing staff who got the PFA involved to settle the dispute.

Elsewhere current liabilities exist in the form of a loan from Protoplan Limited – an Owen Oyston-owned company – in excess of  £4m. It is unclear what the purposes of this loan was – Protoplan is listed as a ‘building completion’ firm – but the accounts state this was repaid in full on 17th September 2010, no doubt once the first tranche of Premier League money had been received.

Another Oyston backed company is also owed money by the club – Zabaxe Limited – and the story surrounding this debt is not straightforward either. Zabaxe is owed in the region of £944k, a debt stretching back more than a decade. In 2000 this debt was converted to share capital in Segesta Limited, but in the past financial year this transaction was deemed to be avoided – essentially it has been decided that for whatever reason this should not have been allowed. Therefore the original debt has been reinstated, and the share capital reduced. The accounts state that this debt of £944k was due to be paid in 2010/11.

An increase in trade creditors – other football clubs – due within the next year has also increased by around £800k with the various transfers, which are often paid in installments. The club has also called upon Valeri Belokon’s Baltic International Bank for a loan of £800k at an interest rate of 8%, which was due to be repaid on June 30th 2010. A separate loan for around £500k was received in the financial year from Belokon’s VB Football Assets Ltd, which one would expect was the vital contribution which secured the signing of Charlie Adam. This particular loan has also been repaid since the turn of the financial year, specifically on 2nd December 2010.

Albeit not an external creditor, Blackpool Football Club Limited continues to repay a debt to the parent company Segesta Limited at a rate of £435k per year – the amount receiver from the occupiers of the North and West stands, less a 10% administration fee. As of 31st May 2010, the remaining debt stood at £2.7m. Repaid at the current rate it will be cleared in six years, but whether the influx of Premier League money might see the parent company recoup the debt more quickly remains to be seen.

Looking to the longer term, the chart below shows the group historical long term liabilities.

The bulk of the long term liabilities during 08/09 was comprised of the loan owed to Protoplan, and with that becoming a current liability in 09/10, and now paid of as of September 2010, the long term debt in the 09/10 accounts comes from a different source.

Almost £7.5m is owed to Blackpool’s Latvian investor, in one form or another. Two significant outstanding loans remain – one of £4.75m to Valeri Belokon’s VB Football Assets Limited, and the other a £2.7m loan to Miss Vlada Belokon, the Club President’s daughter. One can only speculate why this personal loan comes from his daughter and not Mr Belokon himself, but it does show the influence the Latvian investment has had on the club. According to the club’s accounts, it is intended that these loans will be repaid from revenue received from the South and South West corner, suggesting that it was indeed Valeri Belokon who put up the money to get the stadium improvements back on track.

A personal loan in the region of £275k is also owed to Owen Oyston, but it is unclear how and when this loan will be repaid. The accounts state that Mr Oyston will not seek repayment in the current financial year, but with money flooding into the club’s coffers following promotion, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see this debt cleared sooner rather than later – the same might also be said for the loans to the various Belokon-related creditors.

Overall the club’s debts, albeit a little complex, won’t be giving anyone any sleepless nights. The incoming Premier League money ensures that the clubs are in a fine position to meet their debts as they fall due, and if the club wants to loosen its shackles, can even pay them off early. The fabled £90m figure for one season in the Premier League and four years of parachute payments will, if nothing else, mean that the club is virtually debt-free going forward – an achievement not to be underestimated in the current climate. Once the debts to the Oyston and Belokon families are cleared, this would also surely mean that the club can really start to benefit from the various letting units in the stadium, on top of its football income.


Influx of Premier League Money

Returning to football income, the latest set of published accounts paint a story far removed from the current situation Blackpool FC finds itself in. With the prestige of top flight football comes the riches to match, and the levels of turnover the club will achieve this season will be by far the highest in its history. Exact figures are naturally difficult to come by but Blackpool FC appears to have timed promotion at a lucrative moment. Not only is the Premier League in the first year of an improved television deal, parachute payments have also been increased in the worst case scenario of relegation.

The amount of television revenue each club receives is calculated on the following basis:

  • 50% – Basic Award
    • Each club receives an equal share of half of the television revenue, for both domestic and international rights.
  • 25% – Facility Fees
    • For each game shown on live TV, clubs are awarded a facility fee. Typically this is a minimum of 10 games for each team (although Blackpool look set to feature in just nine televised fixtures). Naturally, the more often a club features, the larger its share of the payments.
  • 25% – Merit Payments
    • Clubs receive a payment based on their final league position. Last year the payment for finishing in 20th was around £800k, with a further £800k for each place above that, up to a total of £16m for winning the title.

What the improved deal means in real terms is best considered in light of last year’s television revenue. Last season’s bottom club Portsmouth received a total of £31.8m from its share of the television revenue. This coming season the club finishing in 20th can expect to receive a minimum of around £41m from television rights alone. For a club like Blackpool, who has never before turned over more than £10m from all sources in a single year, this amount is staggering. When other revenue sources such as gate receipts, merchandising and sponsorship are included, it is reasonable to expect that the club will turn over in excess of £50m in its debut Premier League season. Protecting this income by avoiding relegation would naturally be a massive boost, but even in the unfortunate event of returning to the Championship, the financial prospects still aren’t exactly bleak.

The new system for parachute payments ensures a total of £48m over the course of four seasons, assuming promotion back to the top flight is not attained. This is paid in sums of £16m for the first two years, with that figure halving for the remaining two seasons. Averaged out at £12m a season, this still eclipses total revenue from any previous years. With contracts reported to contain clauses that see wages drop upon relegation, from already modest salaries, the club would appear to still be in a healthy position whatever the outcome of this season – in a financial sense at least.

The Future


Of course, before we even contemplate Blackpool FC’s financial future beyond the end of this season (whatever division that may be in) there are some obvious events which have taken place after the publication of the accounts being analysed in this article. Off-the-field, the new East Stand is sure to make an impact on the 2010/11 accounts, as is the continued fit-out of the South Stand. On the playing side of things some higher transfer fees are inevitably going to have to be considered. Although meagre by Premier League standards, it’s likely that Blackpool may have spent as much as £5m, although the fees will be accounted for over the length of the players’ contracts. Wages too will have risen considerably, possibly to more than double the previous season’s level – and a potential survival bonus of another £5m will drive this even higher.
The Seasiders should turn a tidy profit in 2010/11, but when the various costs above are considered, as well as the various debt pay-offs, it may not be quite as profitable a year as some may have expected. Ultimate reward comes from a sustained spell in the Premier League but the club is in a healthy state and as already discussed, could see itself become almost debt-free within the next couple of years – an enviable position for every other football club out there.
This is not to say that all is rosy in the garden – key concerns will remain among the Blackpool support and with good reason. One supposed benefit of earning promotion, alongside the redevelopment of Bloomfield Road, was meant to be a brand new training ground. However, almost one year on this seems no nearer to reality and one wonders if the idea will be shelved completely if the worst happens and the club are relegated this May. It cannot be denied that the surroundings the players work in can be an important factor in attracting new talent, in both transfers for the first team and at youth level. A more professional training set-up is surely key to Blackpool establishing itself as a club that belongs in the top flight.
Another consequence of relegation could be a possible lack of competitiveness. Given the financial gulf that continues to widen between the Premier League and the Championship, any relegated team should normally be expected to throw its weight around and compete at the very top with their financial clout. However, a drop in wages upon relegation would likely see Blackpool return to an average-sized Championship wage bill at best. ‘Pool proved in 09/10 that wages aren’t always the key factor, but that promotion bid must surely be the exception rather than the rule. The club may have a healthy profit & loss account whatever division they find themselves in next season, but fans will undoubtedly worry about the ambition of an immediate return.
For now, all of this talk is hypothetical. Blackpool FC’s financial future is stable, but the next couple of months will decide whether the club can kick on from this position, or merely use the Premier League money to consolidate themselves as a competitive Championship side. Either of those options would have been a dream only five years ago, but with around £50m riding on the outcome of this season, the pressure (like it or not) is well and truly on.

Statuesque – Fulham 3 – 0 Blackpool

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Bobby Zamora showed Blackpool’s forwards how to be incisive and decisive as Fulham controlled the key areas of the pitch and the game to record a deserved victory. For all the possession that Blackpool had, their forwards were too static, reducing their attacking options.

Setting Up

Arguably the initiative was handed to Mark Hughes through Ian Holloway’s team selection. The key decision seemed to centre on the inclusion of James Beattie in order to add extra height against a Fulham side whom he thought possessed great height and aerial ability. This was a strange move as Holloway normally tends to veer towards the positive selection based on his team’s strengths instead of countering the opposition.

Fulham set up in a standard 4-4-2 but their work within that framework closed out any space Blackpool might have normally found against a 4-4-2.

Controlling the middle

Fulham controlled the space in midfield superbly to gain control of the game. Their midfield four sat narrow and applied pressure to the Blackpool midfield to disrupt their flow. You can see from the picture below how the midfield sat narrow out of possession with Dickson Etuhu and Danny Murphy closing the space in the centre and Clint Dempsey and Damien Duff moving in off their wings.

Fulham sat narrow off the ball in midfield bringing in their wingers to support their two central midfielders.

Etuhu had a particularly good game working hard in the tackle especially in the first half. In total he made 9 tackles winning 7 of them with 5 of those coming in the first half.

Stuck in the mud

The picture above serves to illustrate the second key point of the game, the static nature of the Blackpool’s statuesque forwards. Arguably the key points of Blackpool’s game are good possession of the ball, linking up with effervescent movement up front, leading to excellent passing opportunities and subsequently chances at goal. The picture above shows the three Blackpool forwards all but stood still, two of them out of the game and the one offering to receive the pass is doing so whilst strolling away from the goal.

Arguably Blackpool’s forwards only made two runs of great note and they both led to chances. Both runs were usual fayre for Blackpool but such a rarity in this game that they deserve to be picked out as illustrations of  good movement. Firstly, Brett Ormerod runs across the pitch in behind the defence, before curving his run as he reads the pass from Craig Cathcart. You can see his run tracked below.

Ormerod making a rare insightful run.

The second run was made by James Beattie, presumably fresh from half-time instructions from his manager to make runs in to space instead of standing still. Here he pulls off in to the right wing before heading down the line and then inside the box to narrowly miss the target.

Resembling the Jacko statue outside Craven Cottage Beattie rarely moved intelligently, when he did he nearly scored.

Great movement, but two examples in a game which Blackpool comprehensively dominated in the passing game is a poor return. Of Blackpool’s passes, 56% of the successful passes were in the middle third and 27% in the defensive third leaving only 17% of total completed passes in the final third. A whopping 442 passes were in the defensive and middle thirds and Fulham was more than happy in letting them dominate.

Got to be starting something? Yes. But not creating or finishing.

Combination

A combination of good possession and lack of  options in attack was all too familiar in this game. The chalkboard below was the story of Blackpool’s afternoon. You can see that a nice passing move commences in the 5th minute along the back line, in to midfield before a hopeful punt up field from Stephen Crainey conceded possession.

Pass and move. Tiki-taka. Boof-hoof!

Home straight

Blackpool now have four home games on the spin and these games will most probably decide their Premier League fate. Holloway came back from Spain this week full of ideas and in time it will be seen whether he has learned anything from that experience. However, he will now be focusing on ensuring that his statues from Craven Cottage don’t pop up again next week at Bloomfield Road against Arsenal.

Seaside Strategy – Fulham Away

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A flat game at Craven Cottage saw Fulham rather easily claim all three points against a sloppy Blackpool. An inability to hold onto the ball in the first half meant ‘Pool contributed to their own demise and once they went behind, Ian Holloway’s men never looked like getting back in it. Holloway himself is sure to be at the forefront of the post-match discussion as his team selection backfired. James Beattie and Brett Ormerod returned in place of Luke Varney and Jason Puncheon, two of the star performers a fortnight ago at Ewood Park. The theory behind this decision was sound – Beattie was there to give Blackpool more height at set-pieces while Ormerod would offer more defensive cover. 
Ultimately though, the lack of pace and movement up front left the Seasiders horribly exposed, particularly once they fell behind. ‘Pool had commendably been trying to pass the ball around, but some poor first touches and misplaced passes contrived to give Bobby Zamora a simple one-on-one chance, James Beattie playing the decisive through ball to the opposing striker as he attempted to find Cathcart. Blackpool also showed their vulnerability from set-pieces as Fulham added two more goals from free-kick situations to put the game beyond the Seasiders.

Looking at the average position chart below, it is easy to see the difference between the two sides, particularly in the forward areas.
It is true that Blackpool’s front three do rotate from time to time, but the chart shows a horribly condensed forward line. For all the possession the Seasiders enjoyed at times – in fact ‘Pool bossed the overall possession 66% to 34% (Edit – ESPN Soccernet stats, 54% v 46% according to the BBC) – it was their usage of the ball in Fulham’s half which was way below par. Too often ‘Pool sought to find a way through the congested middle of the park and the lack of movement gave the likes of Charlie Adam and David Vaughan very few options. 

Adam did manage to complete a few of his searching long diagonals, but when he did the players on the receiving end were offered little support, often being forced back and losing the forward momentum. It was noticeable how languid Blackpool’s attacks were, and goes against what Holloway supposedly learned on his Spanish jaunt.

The likes of Spain and Barcelona move the ball quickly and precisely and force their opponents to chase the game, whereas Blackpool today were happy to roll the ball around with very little urgency.
The chalkboard above shows how Blackpool dominated the possession, and it has been Holloway’s mantra to keep the ball to frustrate opponents. In terms of successful passes, Blackpool outscored the home side by more than double – 533 to Fulham’s 255. However, when you look more closely in the areas in which the two sides had the ball, it’s a little easier to understand the 3-0 scoreline. The significant majority of the Seasiders’ passes were restricted to the first two thirds of the pitch – essentially harmless passes. Meanwhile Fulham made their usage of the ball count with a lot more cut and thrust about their play.

It’s easy to criticise team selection in hindsight, but Ian Holloway must surely rue not playing to his own team’s strengths. Leaving out Puncheon and Varney handed the initiative to Fulham and ‘Pool never really recovered from Beattie’s mistake which handed the hosts the lead. Keeping the ball is all well and good, but it’s important to hurt sides when you have it. Barcelona’s domination of possession is accentuated by the way they keep the ball in the opposing half and keep the other team pegged back. Blackpool gave the ball away cheaply in these advanced areas and never really threatened a well-drilled defensive unit.

With four consecutive home games to come, it is to be hoped Blackpool return to a high pressure approach, and pace in forward areas is key to this. DJ Campbell will be back after suspension and is a player the Seasiders have missed sorely. Now is not the time for Blackpool fans to feel sorry for themselves. While the home record is often dismissed, it is rare that ‘Pool have not put up a good show in front of their own fans (only the West Ham, Sunderland and Birmingham games spring to mind). An attacking approach against Arsenal, Wigan, Newcastle and Stoke over the course of the next month can yield positive results – it’s time to keep the faith in that approach.