Blackpool’s inconsistent start to the season caused consternation and frustration amongst the Blackpool support and presumably staff and players too. However, two wins in their last two games have now left the team in fifth place and looking in better shape than they were two games ago. The majority of what you are about to read was written in the light of a 3-1 defeat to Burnley, however, the analysis here may well be useful when Blackpool hit another rocky patch later in the season as similar issues may be at the heart of any problems.

Gone, gone, gone!

First and foremost the most obvious thing missing from Blackpool this season is Charlie Adam. Added to that, both DJ Campbell and David Vaughan left the club in the summer to stay in the league where they rightly belong. What that means in measurable terms is pretty easy to define; however, it has also meant a great deal of upheaval on the pitch too with new players having to come in to replace them.

Statistically Blackpool lost a significant chunk of their goal scoring output, both Adam and Campbell contributed 25 goals last season which equated to 45% of the total goals that Blackpool scored. In the previous season they scored 27 goals which amounted to 36% of the total.

In losing these players and those goals it has led to a selection dilemma for Ian Holloway and this is perfectly summed up when considering the fact that he has rarely stuck with the same first eleven. Barry Ferguson has come in and replaced David Vaughan, but perhaps doesn’t have the same energy as Vaughan. Whereas, Kevin Phillips has come in to replace Campbell but even though he has scored he may not link up play as well as his predecessor. However, more crucially Adam’s goals and goal creation are yet to be replaced. Losing players is a part of football and it’s how a manager copes with that which ultimately determines his success. Either you go like for like, recruit then fit or make concessions for replacements.

Shape Shifting

A closer look will now be placed upon the way that Blackpool are setting up on the pitch. For a bit of background, Holloway has deployed a version of a 4-3-3 system for most of his time in charge. Last season the midfield shape varied mainly due to a pre-season injury to Keith Southern before reverting to a flatter midfield shape towards the end of the season. As stated earlier it appears that Charlie Adam hasn’t been replaced and arguably he cannot be replaced for the budget that Blackpool has available. He was the crucial link from deep midfield to attack and to understand why that is affecting Blackpool now, his role and position must be understood in more detail.

The inter-relationship and roles of players on the pitch give formations their dynamic. For example, a 4-3-3 could be seen as a chain of relationships on the pitch that need players to combine. Not just from within one department i.e. the defence, but from more than one. The diagram below will hopefully give a visual representation of the point and to show how the side midfielders (Adam & Southern) relate to the defence and the attack.

Last season, David Vaughan sat deeper in the midfield than Adam, who occupied the left hand side of the midfield three. His team within a team, aside from the midfield unit was the team of left full back and left forward too. Through this structure he excelled at bringing Stephen Crainey in to the play and building attacks with him and the left forward. This bridged the distance between midfield and attack and when it worked was when Blackpool were at their most devastating.

The balance on the right of midfield was missing for two reasons. Either Elliot Grandin drifted centrally or Keith Southern tended to sit more instead of advancing with his unit. However, as Gary Taylor-Fletcher offered the team creativity from high up on the pitch on the right it helped to make up the balance. So how is this affecting Blackpool this season?

Effectively that link no longer exists, the left footed midfielder has disappeared and with it, that link too. Stephen Crainey appears to get forward less often and Blackpool’s attack often appears slow and predictable. One key point of creation has been removed and a key point of team cohesion too. It will take time to eradicate and Ian Holloway has appeared to struggle to overcome this.

Narrow minded

The impact of losing Adam has caused a knock on effect for the midfield, which has been further hampered by the early season injury to Grandin. The opening game at Hull saw Grandin attack more aggressively than Adam would have and often he failed to track back. If you want an idea of the formation, it was very much a 4-2-1-3. In going for a 4-2-1-3 in the first match Holloway lost a little sight of the flatter midfield three and once Grandin was injured, Taylor-Fletcher was used in the role to varying degrees of success and arguably removed his forward from his most potent position as that of a forward, dropping deep to receive. This has led to Blackpool getting really out of shape and awkward at times and this has made Holloway twist and turn to get his new players in to something that is workable. Allied to Grandin’s forward positioning, Keith Southern has tended to stay deep and even drift centrally making Blackpool’s midfield shape very narrow. The diagram below shows how Blackpool’s links in the 4-3-3 have become stretched.

Stream of consciousness

This loss of on-field shape has emanated itself in two ways, an unconscious way through players losing their way in a new system and more recently a conscious decision by Holloway to change the shape. What does this mean? Blackpool’s midfield shape had the midfield triangle of players pointing towards the opposition goal instead of the other way round in a conventional 4-3-3 shape. As both of the two players who have dominated in that role (Grandin and Taylor-Fletcher) are naturally attacking and have fewer defensive instincts that someone like Adam. This meant that at times this season they have been caught high up the pitch and any numerical advantage a three-man midfield might have given Blackpool has been lost. You can see this in the diagram below. When attacking, the formation has looked like an aggressive 4-2-4 and even at times a 4-4-2. This happened at times last season leaving Blackpool exposed in midfield and it has started again this season. When Grandin and Taylor-Fletcher are on their games such an application of their skills can be amazing to watch, however, lose the ball and all of a sudden Blackpool are open and ready to be attacked.

It appears that Holloway acknowledged that the shape was too flimsy with the players he was using and consciously switched the team in to a 4-4-2 after a treble substitution against Doncaster which contributed to a comeback and a 2-1 win. He followed up against Nottingham Forest with a 4-4-2 but with less effect and switched mid game against Burnley to a 4-4-2. This was a sign that Holloway could see his team and how they were naturally forming on the pitch and for him to switch to 4-4-2 must have riled him as he doesn’t like the formation. However, you can see his logic for taking these steps and actively pushing his team towards a change of shape. It doesn’t appear to be a way forward and the recent 5-0 victory over Leeds saw him move back towards his more conventional 4-3-3. The question will be, will he switch back to the more attacking 4-2-1-3 once Grandin is fit again and if he does, will he remember to revert to a flatter midfield three when things are going against his side.

New solutions?

Blackpool are at their best when they string together short passes and vary the tempo and point of attack. However, managers know this now and are actively trying to stop them and this has been key to Blackpool’s inconsistent start. Last season few managers tried to alter their style to combat Blackpool and paid the price with a defeat. This season Blackpool are there to be shot at. Hull did what they could to stop Blackpool in the first game, but Derby were the first team to really jam up the midfield and stop Blackpool playing. It is here that Holloway and his players have been slow to find ‘in game’ solutions to tactical problems being posed. Partly because of the players at his disposal, but partly because this is a new experience for them. They’ve been used to having space to play their game and express themselves, but now they are back in the Championship teams want to throw them off their stride and deny them all the space they can.

The midfield approach of some teams this season has exploited the previously mentioned issue of an aggressively placed midfielder and accentuated the distance between Blackpool’s midfield and attack and contributed to the cutting off of the supply to the forwards.

The diagram above highlights how a well-drilled midfield has overcome Blackpool and effectively divided their team. Added to this Blackpool have been slow to react in the game. Both Charlie Adam and David Vaughan have excellent appreciation of tempo and when to start picking up the pace of pace to circulate the ball faster. Blackpool have few midfielders to do this now and any numerical disadvantage they’ve suffered could have been overcome with quicker movement of the ball. It was noticeable in the game against Burnley that in the second half Barry Ferguson pushed harder when in possession to drive the team on and for the first time this season it appears like Blackpool’s midfield had gained a new dynamic. Add in the better ball skills of Ludovic Sylvestre in the game against Leeds and all over a sudden the solutions appear to be more forthcoming.

Let’s play Ludo

In fact, the reintroduction of Sylvestre may well have done more to reinvigorate Blackpool than the emphatic nature of the recent back to back victories. He offers the more natural midfield option, less likely to get caught high up the pitch, comfortable in the deep, he also appreciates game tempo and understand where passes should be directed in the final third. What this has highlighted is that the solutions Blackpool have been looking for aren’t that hard to find and hopefully Holloway will veer away from changes in shape to remembering what has worked well in the past and who he still has at his disposal.

Moving on

So what have we learned in this rather long-winded ramble? That Blackpool have struggled for consistency this season due to losing key players and not knowing how best to replace them. By losing sight of what they do well. By losing their shape that brought them so much success. And finally by not adjusting to sides who are happy to shut them out and take a point.

As highlighted in part one, this is a long season and no doubt Blackpool will go through similar cycles of poor and good form. However, the signs are forming that Holloway is learning that his new team may not be far away from showing their real potential.

After a brief hiatus Tangerine Dreaming returns with a two part look at Blackpool’s start to life back in the Championship. This part will look at the season up to now and place it in a context and part two (coming later in the week) will take a look at the performances on the pitch seeking to understand the reasons behind Blackpool’s inconsistent form.

When Blackpool fans were melting in the heat of Wembley stadium there was something of a mirage forming in front of their eyes. Twice coming from behind to secure a victory and their place in the Premier League seemed surreal. On reflection that season tends to be viewed with great fondness, particularly for that day at Wembley and an incredible performance against Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. However, when really breaking that season down it certainly wasn’t plain sailing and provides an interesting context that this season perhaps should be viewed.

Context & perspective

In reaching the play offs Blackpool racked up 70 points, finding the back of the net 74 times, which works out at a points per game average of 1.52 and a goals scored per game average of 1.61.

You can see on the chart above how Blackpool’s points accumulated over the course of the season. However, note how on three occasions the line went flat as they lost either back to back games or as in one instance, three consecutive games. This serves to demonstrate that over a season teams do have poor periods, but ultimately it’s how you recover from those upsets that determines how a team does by game 46. You can also see the step incline at the end of the season as the team pushed hard for the play-offs.

Heal & grow

Blackpool fans would no doubt like to see their team adjusting to life back in the Championship in a smooth fashion and riding high, it wasn’t like that last time around and with the loss of key players it’s not going to be like that this time around. Yes, the start Blackpool has had might strike the casual observer as odd, perhaps suggesting a hangover from the Premier League. Perhaps that is the case, but Blackpool are being rebuilt and that takes time. In his first season in charge it took Ian Holloway a considerable time to get his team functioning and this time around it may be the case again. Yes, an argument could be put together showing that he shouldn’t be in this position and that the club should have recruited in better time and funded a few more high profile signings. However, that wasn’t the case and Holloway has to play with what he has, adding loans where he can and hoping that he can land his main targets in the January transfer window.

Four changes

Just a quick glance at the teams from Ian Holloway’s first game in charge against QPR in August 2009 to the side who beat Cardiff in the final at Wembley shows how a side can evolve over the course of a Championship season.

That initial side (on the left above) had the nucleus of the team that ended up being promoted, however, four spots changed throughout the course of the season. Campbell came in to provide goals, Coleman with his attacking drive from full back, Ormerod with his intuitive running and instinctive timing and finally Matt Gilks who made the number one spot his own with his effective communication and shot stopping.

Completing the jigsaw

Blackpool’s last campaign saw the side develop over the course of the season and once the play off team was completed with the signing of Seamus Coleman from Everton the team went on a run over the last nine games of the season to secure their play off spot. Whilst this isn’t an ideal approach it gives hope as the season progresses and after every set back a quick glance across to the last time out will help to ease any worries. In fact before the play off side was completed Blackpool averaged 1.35 points per game and 1.43 goals per game. From the moment Coleman came in the points per game went up to 2.22 and goals per game jumped up to 2.33.

Whilst this doesn’t offer a direct comparison it hopefully shows how a side evolves from beginning to end. This season is different and offers different challenges, but looking at the nucleus this time around Blackpool currently have around four spaces in their first eleven that are waiting to be taken. Those players are out there and may already be in the squad. It’s up to Holloway to find them and blend them; if he does it in a timely manner then Blackpool will be looking up. If not, then he may require a little more patience from the terraces as he looks to the following season for his new team to come to fruition.

Finally, when looking at the first 14 games of this season against the last season in the Championship Blackpool really aren’t much worse off. Last time out they had 23 points on the board, scoring 19 goals. This time out (bolstered by a 5-0 rout of Bristol City) they’ve scored one more goal (20) but have 4 less points.

Marathon, not a sprint

Monitoring this season against that last Championship season may well be the best tonic for Blackpool supporters as well as the understanding that teams do evolve in this league. The length of season allows for mishaps and loss of form and the availability of loans allow teams to flex their personnel almost on a monthly basis should they wish. The comparisons made here aren’t flawless, but offer some guide, however, it’s always important to be mindful of what happened last season. Nottingham Forest grabbed sixth place with a total of 75 points, so Blackpool may well have to go further than last time they were here in order to get in to the play offs.

Part two of this analysis can be found here – Part Two – The Shape Of Another Journey

The case for the defence

The Verdict

 by Guardian Chalkboards

A 53% pass completion rate against Wigan, and an even worse 45% rate in the game at Ewood Park shows that for all the skill of his range of passing, Adam can often be hit-and-miss.

Case for the prosecution

On the 1st December 2010 this blog took a look at ten aspects of Blackpool’s season up to that point that were reasons behind their success. It made the assertion that should these ten aspects be sustained over the course of the season then Blackpool would stay in the Barclays Premier League. Now the season has come to an end it’s time to pick through that list and see how many stayed the course and how many fell by the wayside.

Task list

First things first, lets list the ten aspects from the original article.

Blackpool must;

1. Keep on attacking teams
2. Keep faith with a 4-3-3 structure
3. Keep meeting teams who pay no regard to Blackpool’s style of football
4. Keep doing the defensive basics
5. Keep passing the ball
6. Keep the long diagonal pass as a part of their game plan
7. Keep the points ticking over
8. Keep supplying DJ Campbell close to goal
9. Keep alert at all times

As you’ll notice,  there are only nine listed above. That is because two of the points from the first article were of the same nature so they’ve been condensed in to point three to avoid confusion. Perhaps, that should have been noted at the time and the post renamed ‘Nine steps to safety’. Actually, that sounds much better now.

Attacking matters

The original article picked up on the fact that Blackpool had little problem in scoring goals and at the rate they were scoring then they’d have scored 58 times by the end of the season. In fact Blackpool did keep their goals flowing and were widely lauded for their commitment to attack. Ian Holloway intended to attack the Premier League and attack he did. Blackpool ended up scoring 55 goals and they were the 8th highest scorers in the whole league and no team has scored as many goals and been relegated in the Premier League era.

Four, Three, Three

Ever since Ian Holloway has taken over the management of Blackpool football club he has advocated a 4-3-3 and he wants his teams at all levels to play the same formation. This season that formation consistently brought the best out of his players and caused all kinds of problems for many teams, especially those set up in a flat 4-4-2. From memory only two teams set up in a 4-4-2 and beat Blackpool (Fulham and Chelsea). A pre-season injury to Keith Southern meant that the 4-3-3 morphed in to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-1-3 and it worked well initially. It will be interesting to see how Swansea set up in the Premier League, they’ll bring a similar structure (applied differently), but will still cause trouble against any team in a standard 4-4-2.

Homework

Not many children ever appear to enjoy their homework and the panel of the Sunday Supplement on Sky Sports appear to take a similarly neglectful approach to their research of football that tends to be outside of their myopic scope. However, this was also the case for the best part of half a Premier League season as most managers who faced off against Blackpool appeared to make no concession and make clear tactical plans to cope with Blackpool. All season it appeared that only Alex McLeish made clear changes to his team structure to counter Blackpool with his 4-1-2-1-2 diamond formation.

Teams tended to favour their regular set ups against Blackpool for the most part and some suffered as a result. Blackpool’s barren run of form was partly explained by other factors, but on occasion some managers recognised that to deny time and space to Charlie Adam would stifle Blackpool and rightly so it had an effect. Another aspect that some managers finally picked up on was to press Blackpool’s back line and close down the keeper to stop them playing out from the back. This and the plan to shackle Adam seemed to be the only major concessions teams made to Blackpool all season, content to play their own game and let Blackpool play their and see who wins. This approach consistently played in to the hands of Blackpool, but as the season wore on and wins became less frequent when the concessions some teams were making combined with the errors Blackpool were making caused a lot of the poor results.

Breaking the line

It’s not a secret that Blackpool were poor defensively and the original post was made after a couple of steady defensive performances and stressed that they needed to become more and more frequent for Blackpool to stay up. In the end poor defensive shape, poor covering, poor communications, poor concentration and poor judgement cost Blackpool very dear. Blackpool conceded 78 goals at a rate of 2.05 goals per game. At the time of the original post that ratio was 1.93 and in the game since then it rose to 2.13. You can see below how around the time of the last article their goals conceded per game started to improve before picking up again at the crucial back end of the season.

Teams defend as a unit and Holloway stressed that his defence starts with his forwards, whilst this is true, the defensive basics of clearing lines safely, generally rested with the back five and a couple of midfielders. If you look at the % of successful clearances this season you can see that on average Blackpool cleared their lines successfully 61% of the time. However, the number of critical mistakes made in games never seemed to die and hung around till the end of the season. Through a quick count up (via whoscored.com) Blackpool made a total of 14 errors leading to goals being scored (Richard Kingson was the player who made the most, 3).

Tick-tock

As stated many times on the blog this season Holloway sees short passing as the foundation for Blackpool’s game, he aspires for tiki-taka style passing and at the time of the original post Blackpool were performing excellent with balls to feet with a pass completion of 77%. However, a post earlier this year noted that their passing was dropping off as teams pressed better and Blackpool became a little direct at times especially from the back and through the evaporation of the quickly taken short freekick. At season end Blackpool’s pass completion stood at 76% and if you segment the season up in to arbitrary halves then for the first half of the season Blackpool were stood at 78% and the second half at 74%.

Die-agonal

Posts on this blog and over on Up the ‘Pool have talked about the way that Blackpool have utilised the long diagonal from back to front to stretch the play and add variety. However, as the season progressed the pass did tend to become easier to read and it’s hard to pin point a goal being scored as a result, however, that’s not to say that it ceased to become useful. Only a detailed analysis would answer questions around this.

Grinding to a halt

A simple graph will confirm that Blackpool failed in keeping the points ticking over as you can see below.

Whilst it is a by-product of the team performance, it is crucial for any team to consistently pick up points throughout the season. Blackpool’s 1 win in a 16 game run hindered the steady accumulation of points and such runs breed poor habits and drain confidence and Blackpool found it hard to shrug off. As mentioned earlier about the defence, mistakes were common, team selection frustrated by injury and other things added up to test Blackpool week in week out, but they struggled to break free from the cycle till it was arguably too late given the strong end to the season that both Wolves and Wigan had.

Poached

A study of DJ Campbell’s goals in the Championship showed that he thrived on balls played between the goal line and penalty spot and the assertion was made this season that should Blackpool keep supplying the ball to him in that range then he’d keep on scoring goals all season. At the time of the original article he was on schedule to hit 8 goals for the season. In fact he made some improvements in his game, notably in his movement in dropping deep to receive the ball and his ball control did steadily improve, although he still has a tendency to misjudge his control especially if the ball bounces just in front of him. The ball tends to rise up on his first touch leaving the ball a couple of feet off the ground and fair game for any defender. However, his strength on the ball has improved as has his decision-making as to when to play a flick or hold on to the ball. DJ Campbell ended the season with 13 goals in what was an excellent season for the striker.

Capitulation

Back in December Blackpool had a developed a habit of conceding late on in the game, at that point 9 goals had been scored against them in the last 15 minutes of game which equated to 31% of the total goals conceded. As the season progressed, this never went away and this more than anything has caused Blackpool the biggest problems. By the season end Blackpool had conceded 20 goals in the last 15 minutes equating to 25%.

Mission: Failed

This article served to follow up something written some months ago and served merely to round that post off so that it could be established if the tasks ahead of Blackpool had been carried out successfully. Five out of the nine could be deemed as a success, whilst four failures and it is those four that proved most critical. However, the lines between staying up and going down were very fine in the end, Blackpool didn’t need to defend like warriors game after game or have the mental resilience to see out every game from a winning position. All they really needed was one more minute of concentration, one less misplaced clearance and they may well have stayed up. However, what Blackpool showed more than anything is that they were a team of extremes, great going forward, woeful in defence and should they ever get to this level again, then striking a greater balance will serve them better.