Category: Match Coverage

Seaside Strategy – Bolton Wanderers Away

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A great point, all told, but disappointing not to claim all three points having led 2-0 with just 15 minutes to go. Bolton have proven on many occasions this season that they are not a team to be taken lightly and following their last home outing resulting in a 5-1 demolition of Newcastle, you’d have been hard pressed to find a ‘Pool fan unhappy with a draw at the Reebok. However, DJ Campbell’s missed chances with the score at 2-0 ended up costing the Seasiders the victory when it looked all but assured.

Moving away from the disappointment of not holding onto the win, it was a performance as good as any so far this campaign. For long spells Blackpool were rampant and only their profligacy in front of goal stopped them putting five or six past the Wanderers. Ian Holloway was rightly delighted with how his side played, but which players in particular should be picked out for individual praise? The excellent Zonal Marking highlighted Elliot Grandin’s corner delivery in his weekly article for the Guardian and this was surprising given Bolton’s perceived aerial strength, but credit must go to the management team for their work on the training ground. Scoring goals from set-pieces has not been a hallmark of Blackpool sides down the years, but if this pattern can be continued it bodes well for maintaining the good goalscoring record the Seasiders possess.
Elsewhere, I’d like to draw attention to the two full-backs, Neal Eardley and Stephen Crainey. After a rocky start to the season, Crainey has emerged as one of ‘Pool’s more consistent performers and against Bolton he put in another solid shift.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

The chalkboards above demonstrate how Crainey made key contributions throughout the game. The Scotland international won all of his tackles in ‘Pool’s defensive third with particularly crucial challenges in and around Blackpool’s six yard box. Crainey also made three blocks in the same areas including one goalline clearance as Bolton went in search of the equaliser. I have already highlighted Crainey’s strength in going forward, and when you consider his influence at the back you would anticipate that he has fended off competition from David Carney, for the foreseeable future at least.
Turning attention towards the Seasiders’ current right-back, Neal Eardley has largely gone unnoticed. Stepping in for Alex Baptiste since the former Mansfield defender picked up an injury, Eardley has been ever-present (Villa away excepted) and appears to look more comfortable and confident with each appearance. In spite of this, he rarely seems to merit a mention in most post-match discussions. I have been guilty of this just as much as next man, so I’d like to take the overdue opportunity to look at his last couple of performances against Wolves and Bolton.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Eardley can find himself a little exposed at times due to ‘Pool’s attacking formation, but by and large he has acquitted himself very well. Matt Phillips started against Wolves and he tends to track back less than others, but under the tough examination of playing against Matt Jarvis, Eardley put in a respectable performance under difficult circumstances. With Gary Taylor-Fletcher back in the starting line-up at Bolton offering more protection in a defensive sense, this enabled Eardley to have one of his best games in a tangerine shirt. Eardley supported Blackpool’s attacks on several occasions.
Another aspect of Eardley’s game I’d like to bring up is the long diagonal to the left wing. This looks to be a tactic Holloway likes having employed it both last season and this, and Eardley has at times hit some sensational long passes to Luke Varney and Stephen Crainey. While not always successful, this tactic allows ‘Pool to use the full width of the pitch and has helped make Luke Varney such a dangerous threat.
‘Pool seem to have garnered a reputation for conceding goals, but both Neal Eardley and Stephen Crainey can be pleased with their performances to date this season. The formation employed gives them a lot to do both in a defensive and attacking role, but the pair seem to be adapting well to life in the Premier League. Crainey should be commended for stepping up despite having been written off at this level with former clubs, while Eardley has to be applauded for working his way firmly into Holloway’s plans. Coleman kept the Welshman out of the side last season, Baptiste began this season in the right-back berth and there was also the potential signing of Angel Rangel that fell through. If Holloway had doubts about Eardley, and the aforementioned situations point to this, the former Oldham man must have persuaded the manager that he can be counted upon.

Seaside Strategy – Wolverhampton Wanderers Home

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Blackpool never make things easy – this we know – and so despite what for large parts of the game seemed a straight-forward victory, another late goal caused a panicky end to a match once more. It may not have been the most eye-pleasing of wins, but it was a vital three points over a side against whom ‘Pool are directly competing with this season. This result puts the Seasiders nine points ahead of both West Ham and Wolves, a sizeable cushion at this stage of the season. What about the performance though? Where did Ian Holloway’s side gets things right, and which areas need to be looked at for improvement?
With all the excitement we’ve had at Bloomfield Road so far this season, the first 45 minutes on Saturday was something of a letdown. It could easily be forgotten, given ‘Pool were 2-0 up and seemingly in command of the game, but of the two teams it was the visitors who saw more of the ball in the opening half. Luke Varney’s wonder strike should have given Blackpool the impetus to push on and stamp their authority on the game, but for most of the half it was one way traffic in favour of Wolves. The following chalkboard shows just how busy ‘Pool’s defence was.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Over the course of the 90 minutes, the Seasiders made an astonishing 42 successful clearances – the highest they’ve achieved all season. The game at Newcastle was a classic example of a rearguard action, but on Saturday the ‘Pool defence was tested more frequently than at St James’ Park. Ian Evatt and Craig Cathcart put in great performances once again, and were able to restrict Wolves to few clear-cut chances, despite their pressure. Of course while it’s easy to cite good defending, it’s also important to mention how Wolves clearly lacked the cutting edge to break down Blackpool. Richard Kingson had little to do, if anything, in the first half, but did make two good saves as Wolves looked slightly more dangerous after the break. Conceding the consolation goal was disappointing, and will frustrate the ‘Pool defence who had worked so hard to keep their opponents out – Kevin Doyle’s goal actually coming when Ian Evatt was sent from the pitch after receiving treatment, a rule that surely has to be looked at.
Why did ‘Pool struggle to get to grips with Wolves then? Mick McCarthy’s side are in an awful run of results, yet despite taking an early lead the Seasiders were outplayed for long spells. Looking at the team picked by Holloway, my instinct is to look at the inclusion of DJ Campbell in the hole ahead of Charlie Adam and David Vaughan and just behind the front three. Elliot Grandin and Gary Taylor-Fletcher have played this role this season with varying degrees of success, but how does DJ compare?

 by Guardian Chalkboards

The above chalkboard compares Campbell’s performance on Saturday against Grandin’s versus West Ham. I’ve opted to show only the first 59 minutes, as Grandin was then replaced by Matt Phillips at Upton Park. Campbell had little influence at Bloomfield Road, completing only nine successful passes in the first hour of the game, with no impact at all being made in the final third of the pitch. By contrast Grandin looked to have a far bigger role last week, yet this didn’t appear to be enough to satisfy Holloway, who took him off and replaced him with Phillips. This reinforces the view that Campbell is a favourite of Holloway and perhaps ‘undroppable’ – ignoring the unusual selection at Villa Park. Campbell’s presence in the side allowed Wolves to take control of the midfield, and this will perhaps persuade Holloway to bring back Grandin, or tweak his formation slightly to include Ludo Sylvestre or Keith Southern.
Regardless of the performance though, the three points are worth their weight in gold. ‘Pool go into a tricky run of fixtures from now until the end of the calendar year, where points could be at a premium. Holloway will be hoping his defence can continue to perform at their current high level, but has plenty to think about with his more attacking options.

The Perfect Combination?

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A review by Zonal Marking of the Manchester derby didn’t do much to heighten the enjoyment of a truly awful spectacle, however, it did inspire this article about Blackpool’s midfield. The review touched on the idea of the ideal combination of a midfield three, both examples on that night were far from ideal and were cited as being behind the drab stalemate. The ideal combinations offered by the article included the breakdown that a team playing three in midfield should have a ball winner, a passer and an attacking creator. Instantly the Championship midfield trio of Southern, Adam and Vaughan sprung to mind, that had everything last season; balance, grit, energy, precision, vision and creativity to name a few characteristics. This season two of that trio are still playing exceptionally, but due to injury the ball winner was unavailable and Elliot Grandin came in to become a part of the midfield. Grandin has many qualities and has excited the Blackpool fans with his performances so far. He of the three though is the one that Holloway tends to sacrifice when he feels changes are needed. Does this mean that Grandin isn’t offering the midfield balance that Holloway is looking for or is his role something else entirely.

Ian Holloway appears to have set roles for each player to perform within his system and this allows him to make changes such as the 10 he made against Villa, without changing the shape or style of the team. Each of the three must have a set role, and as Holloway has openly cited Spain as an influence on how he wants his team to play then maybe he’s looking for Blackpool to have their own Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta or as defined above a ball winner, a passer and an attacking creator. If this is the case how does Blackpool’s midfield measure up against that ideal combination.

Last Saturday the midfield trio lined up against West Ham, in the tackle David Vaughan won all of five of his challenges, Charlie Adam won two and Grandin none. Given that Vaughan tends to sit deeper than the other two and won the most tackles then on the day he was the ball winner.

Looking at the number and accuracy of passes should give an idea of who the passer in the team is. Grandin was only on the pitch till the 59th minute so the passes were only counted till then. Vaughan completed thirty out of thirty four passes, Adam twenty five from thirty one and Grandin sixteen from twenty. Vaughan comes out on top here as the passer and looking back on previous games, he tends to rack up the most passes out of the trio in the games that have been played this season. You can see the differences in Vaughan and Grandin’s pasing below. Vaughan’s passes covering box to box and generally much deeper than Grandin.

Finally, who stood out as the attacking creator? This is the most obvious selection, Adam gets involved in most of the plays that Blackpool have, he is the nearest thing there is to a playmaker in the midfield. There were no goals against West Ham which would have given a better indication of the ‘attacking creator’ based on assists, however, when looking at the goal scoring chances from open play then Adam was involved in five chances, Vaughan five and Grandin one. This backs up the assertion that Adam makes plays, but Vaughan is his equal. Over the season though Adam has created the most goals for the Tangerines and again that should see him fit in as the playmaker and it’s fair to say that Holloway does give him license to try the extra ball that carries a higher risk, such as the diagonal pass with the outside of his left foot that Campbell pounced on to score at St James’. You can see below a couple of passes that Adam has made this season to contribute to goals (Adam is circled in red).

What does this say about Blackpool’s midfield or even Blackpool’s tactics for that matter? Well first and foremost it shows just how important David Vaughan is to the midfield unit. He is a true all rounder and almost the midfield lynch-pin, Adam gets the plaudits and the media glare but Vaughan is equally as important. It shows that if Holloway has an approach to his midfield three similar to that as described above then there is a lack of balance with Vaughan seemingly playing two roles and Grandin none. It could indicate that this season Holloway has moved away from a midfield three and sees his midfield as Vaughan and Adam with Grandin as a forward, a second striker perhaps filling in behind Campbell. The match against Wolves should go some way to understanding where Blackpool’s midfield is right now, should Grandin drop to the bench to replaced by Southern or Sylvestre then perhaps Holloway is aiming for the ideal combination in midfield.

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Seaside Strategy – West Ham United Away

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Quite how this game finished 0-0 is hard to comprehend for anyone who witnessed it, but in the end a point each was probably fair. Both teams will argue they could have won it, and Blackpool did have the better chances (plus the wrongly-disallowed Harewood goal) but a share of the spoils away from home anywhere this season has to be a respectable outcome. What do the stats tell us about the game?

I decided to do something a little different this week, and take a look at how some of ‘Pool’s attacks developed at the weekend, using the match action tool on ESPN Soccernet. In possibly the most exciting 0-0 draw Blackpool will be involved in for years to come, one aspect of the game was just how end-to-end it was, both teams attacking with pace, taking it in turns to have their go. I’ve hand picked three chances during the game.

Grandin chance – 7th minute (click for large version)
The first example I’ve picked out was Elliot Grandin’s missed chance after seven minutes of the game. Neal Eardley starts off the move at right back, but it’s worth noting how the midfield three of Grandin, Charlie Adam and David Vaughan move up the pitch together at the heart of this attack. Ian Holloway stated in his post-match interviews that the reason Ludovic Sylvestre has yet to break into the team is down to how well those three have gelled, and the above diagram is testament to this. While Grandin has shown flashes of brilliances since signing, some have questioned his end product. In this instance he has done well to get in a forward positions but not for the first time his finishing let him down, making only minimal contact with his head, glancing it well wide. The 11 pass move deserved better, but was a sign of things to come for ‘Pool breaking quickly.
Eardley chance – 33rd minute (click for large version)
This chance involved one fewer pass – 10 overall – and had the ball dropped to a striker rather than Neal Eardley, the deadlock could have been broken. It does help highlight the improvement in Eardley’s game this season however. His long diagonal to the left is one pass in his playbook that he often favours, and the pass early in this move to Crainey is indicative of this. Eardley is also learning to get forward to support Blackpool’s attacks, and he’ll hope to add to his goal against Everton as more opportunities will surely come his way. See also how DJ Campbell was involved in the link up play, not only on this chance on two occasions, but also during Grandin’s early chance. Campbell had few chances himself, but still contributed elsewhere.
Taylor-Fletcher chance 74th minute (click for large version)

The glaring miss from Gary Taylor-Fletcher comprised only three passes in the build up, but came at a time when both teams were stretched going for the win. As the space opened up, the chances became ever more regular. With more gaps to exploit, it became possible to break forward within a matter of seconds, as was the case for GTF’s glorious chance. David Vaughan, as he often does, broke up an opposition attack before neatly starting a ‘Pool attack. Matt Phillips, on at this point for Grandin, popped up on the left hand side and calmly clipped in an inviting cross and…well, we all know the rest.

All the above diagrams do nothing to dispel the theory that Blackpool favour attacking down the left – Marlon Harewood’s sitter also came from the left, created by Luke Varney who received a long ball from Charlie Adam. The first two diagrams will certainly please Ian Holloway – they both demonstrate a willingness to progress up the pitch with a mix of short and long passes – and there were plenty of other examples of this I could have called upon. From the other side of things though, West Ham also carved out a number of opportunities where they quickly broke from their own box to have a shooting chance mere seconds later.

Next week I’ll hopefully be back to the more familiar Guardian Chalkboards when analysing the crucial match at home to Wolves. As Tangerine Dreaming mentioned in their match review, the game at the Boleyn Ground was a difficult one to analyse from the stats, given the frantic end-to-end nature of the match. I’m hoping I can fall back on the chalkboards next week for a more traditional review of ‘Pool’s tactics.

A Strange Stalemate – West Ham Review

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As stalemates go, this was perculiar in the fact that both teams wanted to the win the game and had more chances between them to win the game than any game in the Premier League this season. A stalemate is generally the result of two teams fearful of losing and denying space all over the pitch and not committing too many players in to attack in order to keep their defensive shape. However, a combination of poor composure in front of goal, resolute defending and a lack of patience ensured not one goal was scored (No mention of the onside disallowed goal here).

The line ups

Line up after Dyer was subbed for West Ham. Barrera cropped up on both flanks and Obinna tended to drop deep or roam around from his forward position. Taylor-Fletcher gravitated inside and played in that role once Matty Phillips came on.

Blackpool almost returned to the side that played Everton with Southern dropping to the bench to be replaced by Grandin, setting Blackpool out in their now usual 4-2-1-3 / 4-2-3-1. With the introduction of Phillips, Taylor-Fletcher dropped deeper and more central and Blackpool formed in to a 4-2-4 which has become very common this season. West Ham set up in a rough 4-4-2 with some interchanging of position and one the front two dropping deep at times to form a 5 in midfield. Blackpool’s four band formation usually competes well against a three band system as they can exploit the space between the opposition lines. However, West Ham sat Parker and Noble deep at times to make their system more like 4-2-2-2 which helped to nullify Blackpool. This move from a formation point of view helped to contribute to the stalemate that ensued with the most space being created when attacks broke down and counter attacks were made.

Middle of the field

In midfield West Ham worked hard to deny Charlie Adam space, for the first 20 minutes this appeared to throw him off his game and in fact until his booking in the 27th minute he didn’t really make any positive passes and was generally pushed deeper and deeper by excellent pressure from Mark Noble and Scott Parker. The booking seemed to sharpen his mind and from then on, his range and effectiveness of pass increased with two passes getting in to the opposition box.

Adam's passing up to his yellow card on 28 mins, compared to his passes after that when he appeared to settle in to the game.

Before the game Scott Parker was talked about as West Ham’s key man and he didn’t disappoint, turning in an action packed display. He differs from Adam in that he is a complete midfielder and performs many roles. In  fact Parker, in addition to his 33 successful passes (joint with Noble for the most West Ham completed passes) chipped in with 5 succesful tackles, 2 interceptions and 6 blocks. Mark Noble wasn’t too far behind him with with a superb all round performance as well. With Parker and Noble denying him space, Adam played much deeper than West Ham’s key midfield duo. You can see how much deeper Charlie’s passing was compared to Scott Parker in the chalkboard below.

Note how Adam's passing is from a much deeper position than Parker.
Notice how Parker in the upper heatmap has a great share of his passes in the opposition half.

What was another key factor for West Ham in attempting to control of this game is the fact they were so dominant in the tackle winning 47 and losing only 19. When you break this down even more you can see that aerially West Ham were in complete control winning 18 headers to Blackpool’s 6. This is partly explained by the lack of height in the Blackpool side, but even those taller players in the centre back positions only won 2 of those 6. This gave West Ham an outlet going forward and territorial advantage to construct attacks.

Desperate Defence

This game saw clean sheets for both sides, but neither was down to a highly organised back line, some of the defending was desperate at times with lunges in to the tackle and last ditch blocking of shots. This was demonstrated with the amount of blocks each side had (22 in the entire game). Yes, this game will go down as having the most attempts on goal without a goal, but only 4 shots forced ‘keepers to make saves, something that both teams will take away from this game and seek to improve their composure in front of goal.

While the defences were performing resoltutely both attacks made it easy for them. As mentioned above through lack of composure and poor decision making but also from lack of patience in attack. Yes there were more shots at goals than you can shake a stick at, however, 14 of Blackpool’s shots came from outside the area and West Ham had 8 which accounted for 46% of all attempts on goal. Perhaps this showed a little desperation, trying to get a goal and shooting at all costs rather than retaining possession and finding a better position to shoot from.

Moving on

Overall this was a difficult match to break down given the even spread of play, there were good passing moves and plenty of chances but composure and decision making were lacking at key times. Blackpool will be happiest with the draw and move on to tackling Wolves at Bloomfield Road next week. Ian Holloway will be hoping that if they carve out that many opportunities again added to some renewed composure (such as that seen again Wigan in week one) then Wolves will need to do some scoring of their own to take something from Bloomfield Road next Saturday.

Seaside Strategy – Aston Villa Away

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With all the hoo-hah about team selection hopefully behind us, I’d like to take a look at how some of the fringe players performed, and whether it’s possible for them to oust their teammates on a more regular basis.
Three players who had perhaps been closest to breaking into the starting XI prior to the game at Villa Park were David Carney, Ludovic Sylvestre and Matt Phillips. Did they put in a good enough shift to warrant keeping their places for the game against West Ham tomorrow, or are they likely to be back on the bench in another all-change approach from Ian Holloway?
In order to compare performances, I have used statistics from those who they replaced from the Manchester City game – that match also ending 3-2 being possibly the most suitable comparison.
Looking at Carney first, can he hope to keep Stephen Crainey out of the side? Crainey has drawn criticism for some of his performances this season, most noticeably away at Arsenal, but more often than not he has bounced back with a solid performance, making it hard for Holloway to drop him. Carney was brought in on deadline day as back-up for Crainey, but despite his experience with the Australian national side, has had to bide his time.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

The easiest thing to notice is just how much further up the pitch Crainey plays. Not only that, but Crainey also tries to contribute with assists, providing crosses on a number of occasions, while Carney failed to make one cross all game – his only passes into the Villa box coming from corners. This is fairly surprising, as Carney has played large spells of his career as a midfielder, giving the expectation that he would get forward more often than he did at Villa Park.
What, then, of Ludovic Sylvestre? I’ve chosen to compare his statistics against those of Charlie Adam. With Adam’s future at Blackpool in doubt beyond January, many will be hoping that the former Barcelona trainee can step into his shoes. Sylvestre’s performance was one of the highlights against Aston Villa, as he looked composed in possession and moved the ball neatly. He did tire as the game wore on, being visibly slow to track back in the latter stages, but that is only to be expected with so few first team minutes under his belt. What do the stats say about Sylvestre though? Can he hold a torch to Adam?

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Sylvestre made a particularly large number of passes, completing 61 of them successfully. In terms of sheer quantity, few Blackpool players have made quite so many passes in a single game this campaign. What about the quality of these passes though? Where Adam holds the advantage over Sylvestre is the areas in which he sees the ball. Adam’s role is slightly higher up the pitch and thus taking up more dangerous positions in an attacking sense. Sylvestre looks to keep the ball ticking over nicely, but whether he offers the same drive as the ‘Pool skipper remains to be seen.
Last, but not least, let’s take a look at the star man from Wednesday night’s game, Matt Phillips. When he signed from Wycombe in August, I expected he would be a peripheral figure for much of this season – one for the future, if you like. Even his cameo appearances have caught the eye, including his memorable goal against Blackburn, which should have been enough to earn ‘Pool a point. A starting place was long overdue, and nobody took their chance more so than Phillips. For many, he was the most exciting player on the pitch, and of the 10 changes, he is possibly the candidate most likely to stay in the side tomorrow at Upton Park.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

Comparing his performance to Gary Taylor-Fletcher’s against Man City, you can see how Phillips helped give the Seasiders real width. Whereas GTF has a tendency to drift towards the centre of the pitch, Phillips ran at the full-back time and time again. He briefly switched to the left at one point in the first half, but even then he kept wide, rarely coming inside and making the ‘Pool attack narrow. Perhaps most impressive was Phillips determination to get to the byline and deliver a cross. He created a number of chances doing this, which with some better finishing from Marlon Harewood, could have resulted in a more positive result. How long Phillips can maintain the high standards he has set himself is uncertain, but he is already establishing himself as a player of real quality.
Looking forward to tomorrow, Holloway has to decide which players come back in, and which ones drop out. I doubt there’ll be another 10 changes, but you have to wonder if Carney and Sylvestre have done enough to keep out Crainey and Adam. Only fatigue or injury is likely to prevent Matt Phillips adding to his first Premier League start, and I’m hoping I’ll have plenty more to write about the highly-exciting prospect after the game against West Ham.

Just the 10 changes, then

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When I wrote before the Aston Villa game that changes were afoot, even I wasn’t expecting quite so many of them. Ian Holloway opted to make no fewer than ten changes to the side that took to the field against Everton, and in doing so has drawn the full glare of the media spotlight. In the wake of this story, I think there are some key issues that should be looked at:

  • Was Holloway right to make so many changes?
  • Were the ‘Pool fans who travelled short-changed?
  • Did Holloway over-react in the post-match interview?
  • Should the Premier League be getting involved?
  • Is Holloway’s quit threat genuine?
  • What does this mean for Saturday?
  • What are the longer-term consequences? 
Let’s take a look at these questions one at a time, and try to provide some answers…
Was Holloway right to make so many changes?
This obviously depends on your definition of right. The reasons given by the manager for the overhaul were twofold – the first being to rest players who have played regularly. This season has no doubt been a step up in terms of the standard and pace of the game, so the view that players need to be kept fresh is a worthy one. The second reason given by Holloway was to let some of the fringe players have an opportunity. Fringe players, might I add, that have been selected among Blackpool’s 25 man squad submitted to the Premier League. 
By the letter of the law, surely fielding players part of this squad cannot possibly be construed as purposely sending out a weakened team? Then again, you have the ambiguous Premier League rule E.20 – “In every League Match each participating Club shall field a full strength team.” In whose opinion? With pre-selected squads of 25, who determines just which players are strong and weak? Some might suggest a rule of limiting changes from game to game, but where would this arbitrary limit be set? A maximum of six changes? Seven? What if injuries and suspensions mean a team has to make more changes than this pre-determined limit?
Holloway has a squad, and he is surely entitled to use it as he sees fit, without outside influence.
Were the ‘Pool fans who travelled short-changed?
This is a tricky one. Anyone who was at Villa Park last night cannot argue with the level of performance. First choice team or not, for long spells the men in tangerine matched their more illustrious counterparts, and but for a last minute goal from a set-piece, ‘Pool would have come away with a well-earned point. The team sent out did not roll over, and did not do the club a disservice. Fans were given a chance to see potential future starts, such as Matt Phillips and Ludovic Sylvestre, shine on the big stage.

Then again, had a more familiar XI started the match, Seasiders’ fans could have been rewarded with another away win. Villa, through a number of injuries, were also depleted, and arguably there for the taking. Last night cost me in excess of £50, and it will have cost many even more than that. Personally, I don’t regret going and I still feel it was value-for-money in entertainment terms (as much as Premier League football can be good value). However, for financial reasons I am having to miss my first away game of the season at Upton Park on Saturday. Would I have chosen West Ham over Villa if I’d known that Holloway would make 10 changes? Possibly, possibly not. Is it really for me though, to pick and choose my games depending on the chances of my team winning? Absolutely not. Following Blackpool through some truly horrendous times, it would be churlish to now cry off at the first sign of the Premier League dream turning sour.
What’s to say, though, that Blackpool would have played better with an unchanged team? In spells, ‘Pool played as well as they have done all season, and in Phillips had one of the outstanding performances of the season so far. If some fans feel aggrieved at Holloway’s decision, then that is their prerogative, but by and large, I believe most Blackpool supporters understand the reasons, even if they don’t necessarily agree with them.
Did Holloway over-react in the post-match interview?
For me, this is possibly the heart of the story. Would the media reaction today have been so pronounced had Holloway not have been so ‘wiggy’ in his post-match interviews? I doubt it. In some ways, Holloway’s reaction has become the story, rather than the changes themselves. Holloway may have felt his fringe players weren’t being treated with due respect by post-match interviews, but a little more civility towards them might not have gone amiss. A quiet post-match press conference would have, in all likelihood, kept the issue largely under the radar.
Should the Premier League be getting involved?
This is a no-brainer. With the new rules on 25 men squads, this should be the end of the debate on weakened teams. It is not for the suits to decide what constitutes a full-strength team. The confirmation that the Premier League are looking at this issue is disappointing. By handing Wolves a suspended £25,000 fine for making 10 changes at Old Trafford last season, the authorities put themselves in an awkward predicament.
The precedent set in that case leaves the Premier League with three choices
  1. Follow through on their original decision giving Blackpool a similar punishment
  2. Admit their original decision was a mistake
  3. Judge Blackpool’s transgression to be ‘less wrong’ than Wolves, perhaps giving Holloway a warning, or possibly take no action whatsoever
Going off past form, the second option is unlikely. I rather suspect the Premier League will take the easy way out, taking no action. Holloway has endeared himself to the country, and any sanctions would surely result in a public backlash Scudamore et al will be hoping to avoid. Following the first course of action could potentially have some very serious repercussions.

Is Holloway’s quit threat genuine? 
Initially, I thought it probably wasn’t. We all say things in the heat of the moment, and Holloway is certainly no different. In his press conference today, Holloway has stood firm on his threat to quit if the club are fined, claiming the team he picks should be down to him alone. It’s hard to argue with him on this, and nor would I dare, but it still looks like he is backing himself into a bit of a corner. I don’t imagine it’s likely the club will be fined, but it cannot be completely ruled out.
If the club are fined, would he keep to his word and resign? This would obviously be disastrous, and I find it hard to believe he would walk away just like that, but it only goes to show just how intense the pressure is on managers at this level. I can’t help but feel though that he has brought some of this on himself by being so outspoken post-match yesterday.
What does this mean for Saturday?
With 10 changes last night, there’s every chance that nearly all those who were left out could return to the starting line-up, which would surely only magnify the issue and increase the probability of a fine. Again, you have to wonder if Holloway has dug himself into a hole here. Does he ignore all the media scrutiny and just pick the team he wants, or to temper the reaction, does he try and retain some of those who featured last night? 
Realistically, it’s hard to imagine more than three or four players keeping their places. Phillips has done himself no harm in retaining his place, while Marlon Harewood might be given the chance to score against another of his former clubs. Injuries at the back to Craig Cathcart and Dekel Keinan could mean Rob Edwards stays at centre back, but beyond that I find it hard to see who else will keep their place. This would mean another eight changes, which is bound to cause another stir, deservedly or not.
What are the longer-term consequences? 
Looking forward to January, yesterday’s match will prove very useful in assessing who might be surplus to requirements, and where extra depth might be needed. There are one or two who played last night that could be moved on to make room in the 25 for new blood, and others who will have impressed the manager enough to feature on a more regular basis.
More significantly though, is wondering how costly dropped points tonight could be. As already mentioned, picking a more familiar starting XI might not have necessarily effected a more positive result, but if ‘Pool are relegated by a narrow margin at the end of the season, critics may well point to last night’s team selection and wonder ‘what if?’.

Conclusions

The outcome at Upton Park on Saturday will be instrumental to how last night’s decision will be viewed. Three points on Saturday with a rejuvenated and fresh group of players will look like inspired management, especially when one considers how close ‘Pool were to a draw last night. However, back-to-back defeats will inevitably lead to more searching questions about the decision to rest key players. Holloway has denied the changes were made with the trip to West Ham in mind, but from the outside looking in, a win over a team also battling against the drop is a more valuable one.
One point I must stress, and one that Holloway sought to achieve in his press conference today, is to note how well the replacements played. I’ve often thought more attention should be paid to the football itself, rather than the circus which surrounds it. That a Blackpool team with 10 changes was still able to compete at this level is a hugely encouraging sign for the rest of the season, when changes may be forced due to injuries and suspension, rather than fatigue.
I’ll be doing a full analysis of the Villa match in the next 24 hours or so, when the focus will be firmly on the pitch.

Changes Afoot

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As ‘Pool prepare for their second of three games, in what our German friends would call an englische Woche, Ian Holloway has indicated that he may rest certain players for the trip to Villa Park, as he seeks to give some of his new players their first real chance to shine. But just how many changes can we expect?
The most obvious example of Holloway’s willingness to make major changes to his side came in last season’s home game against Sheffield United, where he made no fewer than seven. Ian Evatt, Charlie Adam, David Vaughan, Keith Southern, Hameur Bouazza and Billy Clarke all dropped to the bench, despite being automatic picks at the time. After a goalless opening 45 minutes, Adam and Vaughan were unleashed at half-time helping the Seasiders to a 3-0 victory.
Who, then, is vulnerable from the starting XI against Everton? Resting the goalkeeper would seem unnecessary, so I’d expect Matt Gilks to keep his place. Neal Eardley too looks hard to displace with Alex Baptiste still a couple of weeks away from fitness – it’s unlikely Danny Coid would be thrown in. An injury to Craig Cathcart looks set to rule him out, while at left back David Carney may finally get the nod over Stephen Crainey.
The rest of the team isn’t quite as easy to predict, the midfield especially. Holloway has shown in the past he’s not afraid to rest his star men, but leaving out Vaughan and Adam for the same game would surely be a high-risk strategy. A few injury niggles to Adam in recent weeks though may mean that he is the more likely of the two to be rested. With Keith Southern not yet fully match fit, it is doubtful he will add to the 62 minutes he managed against Everton.
Up front Taylor-Fletcher is the man I would expect to be most at risk. GTF has stepped up to Premier League level surprisingly well, although his form has tailed off in the past few games, with time out of the side possibly the best thing for him. Luke Varney nearly missed the match against the Toffees, while DJ Campbell’s goal drought could put his place in jeopardy.
With all this in mind, this is one potential team Holloway could send out to face Aston Villa.
Dekel Keinan is the obvious replacement for Cathcart, and with Carney featuring with more regularity from the bench, I suspect he may get his first start. Ludovic Sylvestre could come in if Adam is rested, with Elliot Grandin regaining his place behind the front three. Matt Phillips could not do any more to earn a place on the teamsheet and Marlon Harewood could be given the chance to score against his former employers. The remaining attacking place is anyone’s guess, but at the moment it seems like Campbell is somewhat undroppable.
I’m not for a minute suggesting this is the team I would pick. A severely weakened Villa side is seemingly there for the taking, but Holloway’s intentions to rotate his squad have been made quite explicit. It could be all mind games, but I’d expect the unexpected when the teams are announced tomorrow evening.

Blackpool v Everton Match Review

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A fair result given that tactically Everton shaded the first half and Blackpool the second. Moyes positioned his team in his usual fashion, Holloway on the other hand brought in Keith Southern with Elliot Grandin dropping to the bench. If anything this meant that Blackpool played a more flatter formation in midfield as they brought back the Championship midfield triumvirate.

Tactical Swings

Moyes’s usual formation of a lop sided 4-1-4-1 worked superbly to deny Blackpool space and create attacking space of their own. Firstly, John Heitinga strangled the space that Blackpool’s midfield like to operate in, (in front of the oppostition’s defence and behind the opposition midfield). Also, by playing a narrowed midfield four this squeezed the other midfield space that Blackpool like to try and pass through to dominate games. Added to this Everton retained possession excellently and broke sharply when they got the ball.

In the second half, Holloway made a point of getting Vaughan pushed higher up in to an advanced attacking midfield position which helped to occupy Heitinga and pressured the Everton defence more directly. The final tactical swing occurred through the substitions. Holloway’s changes saw Blackpool shift to a 4-2-3-1 verging on a 4-2-4 whilst Moyes’s substituions saw him move to a more conventional 4-4-2 which was crucial as Blackpool exploited the space between their lines and hence why they finished so strongly.

Vaughan was pushed higher up the field straight after half time to give Blackpool an attacking midfield focal point.

As Everton shifted to a 4-4-2 this gave Blackpool more space in front of the Everton defence and behind their midfield. This contributed to the dominance that Blackpool enjoyed in the final ten minutes.

Key Players

The impact of Keith Southern is superbly analysed here by Up The ‘Pool, efficiency in posession was the name of his game, however, his coverage of the pitch is testament to his ability to cover space. What is interesting is his failure to make a tackle, Southern himself admitted to feeling a difference in pace and perhaps his lack of speed to close down opponents meant he was never in position to make a tackle. The key to this whole game was John Heitinga, his withdrawl saw Moyes concede his solid balance of five defensive and five attacking players, but it was the space he occupied and subsequently freed up that played into Blackpool’s hands. Heitinga made his tackles and passed solidly, but his influence wasn’t overly measurable. It was more down to his occupancy of space, the vital space that Blackpool thrive upon. You can see in the diagrams above how little space there was and how much more space there was after his substitution. Both Birmingham and Blackburn played someone in a similar role and they both frustrated Blackpool to a similar extent.

Steven Pienaar was crucial in the game till his injury, floating in off the left wing he linked up well with his central midfielders and opened up space to create two v one against Neil Eardley. Eardley stood up reasonably well to this test and certainly didn’t get consistently over run in that department. What Pienaar also helped to do by drifting inside was to pull out Blackpool’s attacking shape as Taylor-Fletcher appeared to drop at times to try and cover him, note (on the chalkboard below) how a lot of his passes were deep after being dragged back.

Right hand balance

Before the game it was noted how these two sides favoured the left hand side for attacking, Everton played up to that perfectly as their first came through that avenue, whilst they struck a great balance to make their second down the right. Overall, they did favour the left and it was testament to Eardley as stated above that he stood up well to the test. Blackpool on the other hand were more balanced, however, Taylor Fletcher’s performance wasn’t one of this best and the right flank was more truly occupied when Matthew Phillips came on, look at the spaces he occupied below. You can see below how Phillips wasn’t dragged back in to the midfield and played most of his game on the right flank.

The difference between Taylor-Fletcher and Phillips. Notice how Taylor-Fletcher was dragged back in to a central midfield position thus cutting down the right flank as an option for Blackpool.

This balance of attack might also be explained by Luke Varney having a poor game. He was rarely invovlved in the play and never once beat Phil Neville to get a cross in. Look how much Varney was involved against Fulham as opposed to Saturday. He was virtually shut out of the game.

In fact Blackpool appeared to lack their usual width and it could be down to the fact that Everton dominated the midfield and dragged Blackpool out of their usual shape when off the ball. Look at Blackpool’s average positions below and see how bunched up the whole team is, virtually the whole of the midfield and attack are in the centre circle.

Defence is in red, midfield green and forwards in pink.

Duelling

Everton won the battle of the tackle, not necessarily on an overwhelming count, but more on the postion they won their tackles, high up the pitch, helping to apply pressure to the Blackpool defence. Everton won 26 tackles in Blackpool’s half whereas Blackpool won 7 in Everton’s. Another aspect of this was the position of their take ons that they won. They were beating Blackpool players high up the pitch. This is crucial in helping to break Blackpool’s lines and create chances. Note where Blackpool won their duels, deep and not so near to the goal as you need to in order to then create chances.

Here you can see that Everton were beating men higher up the pitch than Blackpool were. This can lead to more chances as you break the opponents lines.

Penetration

Blackpool have had plenty of posession this season but not really got a lot of ball in to the opposition box to present Campbell with the chances he needs. Compare this with the way that Everton worked their way in to the box. Blackpool sustained much of their passing deeper than Everton. On the evidence of this game, Blackpool are beginning to work the ball in to the box, however, the frequency and placement needs to improve in order to start breaking down such high quality defences. Only in the last ten minutes did Blackpool start getting the ball in the danger areas with more frequency. Interesting to note that Blackpool failed to complete one cross from open play, effective crossing is crucial to breaking down defences as the defensive line feel less than comfortable in having to move back towards their goal to defend balls in behind them.

Note how few passes got behind Everton's defensive line as Blackpool struggled to breakdown a solid defence.

The season gets better

Overall a draw is a superb result for Blackpool who in the first half were losing the midfield battle and being denied the space that they love to operate in. The withdrawal of Heitinga was a strange decision presumably to counter Holloway’s attacking subs, however, it very nearly cost Everton a point. Blackpool move on to Aston Villa which should be a superb tactical match up again and one that Ian Holloway will relish.

Seaside Strategy – Everton Home

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The sole change to the Seasiders starting XI was to give Keith Southern his first Premier League start. It was a change I anticipated for the West Brom game, as I blogged about following the defeat at Birmingham. Despite notching up the first home win of the season against the Baggies, Ian Holloway opted to change a winning team to play Southern from the start. It was perhaps unexpected, but nonetheless deserved for a player who down the years has epitomised the team spirit which has proved so successful for ‘Pool. So was it an effective change, or did it restrict Blackpool’s attacking impetus?
The common consensus appears to suggest the latter, and it’s hard to disagree with that. Although ‘Pool took the lead through Neal Eardley’s free-kick, the first half very much belonged to Everton, who arguably would have been disappointed to go into the break on level terms. The Toffees caused ‘Pool countless problems, with former loan man Seamus Coleman one of the main protagonists. On the opposite flank, Leighton Baines showed why he has flirted with the national team, spending most of the half occupying the left wing and looking assured on the ball.
The second half was a vast improvement from the Seasiders’ point of view however, and when Southern was replaced by Phillips, ‘Pool showed their attacking prowess in an end-to-end 45 minutes. With the man in the hole behind the front three – initially Gary Taylor-Fletcher, then Grandin when he entered the proceedings – there were stronger signs of link-up play between midfield and attack, which had perhaps been lacking with last season’s traditional three-man midfield on the pitch.
Analysing Southern’s contribution on a micro-level, I won’t bother with chalkboards of his tackles and interceptions, purely because there were so few of them. Amazingly, for someone who is often thought of as a combative midfielder, Southern failed to make a single tackle during his time on the pitch, and his sole interception came in the first minute of the match. It’s easy to see why Holloway opted to pick Southern as Everton often pack the midfield with bodies, so Southern would have been in there to try and break things up. For some reason though, that never materialised. That’s not to say Southern’s contribution was a complete loss however. Looking at the chalkboard below you can see that Southern did not misplace a single pass in his 62 minutes on the pitch, managing 100% pass accuracy.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

22 passes seems on first glance like a rather low amount, but it compares favourably with Charlie Adam’s 28 successful passes and David Vaughan’s 26, given Southern spent the final third of the game sat watching from the bench. It’s hard to know quite where Southern lies in Holloway’s mind though, and whether he will stick with a 4-3-3 for the forthcoming matches, or whether he will return to the 4-2-1-3 which has been so effective for the Seasiders this campaign. Southern should not be cast aside based on this one performance however. He clearly deserves a run of games at some point, and with talk of resting certain players in the manager’s post-match interview, Southern could feature several more times in the next few weeks.
Away from Southern’s impact, what other conclusions can we draw from the cold numbers? One area highlighted by Zonal Marking and Tangerine Dreaming last week was the significant left-sided imbalance to ‘Pool’s play. Looking at all Blackpool’s passes yesterday, the pattern is one of symmetry rather than the lop-sided chalkboards of recent weeks.

 by Guardian Chalkboards

One has to think that this must have been a deliberate plan from Holloway, as ‘Pool’s left-sided emphasis has surely not gone unnoticed by rival managers. The addition of Keith Southern to the starting line-up is likely one contributing factor in this. Both Adam and Vaughan favour their left foot and perhaps it is no surprise that more use is made of the left flank, but with Southern adding more balance to the midfield, there was more incentive to move the ball both ways.
However, even if Southern does not retain his place, I suspect that we will see more focus down the right in future games. With Taylor-Fletcher’s form wavering, and Matt Phillips’ contributions from the bench continuing to impress, it is surely only a matter of time before the former Wycombe man gets his chance. The direct nature of his game, and the raw pace he possesses make him an ideal outlet down the right to give opposing sides problems down both wings. I’ll be taking a closer look at potential team changes, including a first start for Phillips, in the next day or two.