All the way back in August, the two sides played out a 1-1 draw at a sun-drenched Selhurst Park. In the post-match discussion on this blog, it was believed that Blackpool ‘should have been out of sight by half-time’. A strong first half performance from Ian Holloway’s men lacked a cutting edge to lead by more than Alex Baptiste’s goal, when their display merited more. Guilty parties in the opening 45 minutes were Brett Ormerod and Billy Clarke – the former now on-loan at Rochdale and the latter struggling to claim a place on the bench.

August’s match also saw Ludo Sylvestre make his first appearance of the season, albeit from the bench, and despite a promising performance, Sylvestre failed to break into the side until November – it’s hard to imagine the Frenchman missing from the starting line-up for this weekend’s encounter. Another man who played away at Crystal Palace was Kevin Phillips, who could have sealed all three points that day had he not spurned a relatively easy chance in the second half. Phillips will be aiming for a recall to the team this weekend after his cameo appearance at Ipswich helped earned Blackpool a point after being 2-0 down.

Crystal Palace earned a point in the first meeting between the two sides thanks to a goal from top scorer Glenn Murray. The former Brighton man could have stolen all three points for Palace as he timed his run to perfection moments later, but shot narrowly wide when one-on-one with Matt Gilks. Palace may be low scorers, but back in August demonstrated enough to suggest they can cause Blackpool’s defence problems on the break.

• 62% of Crystal Palace’s away games this season have seen fewer than 2.5 goals
• 50% of Blackpool’s home games this season have seen fewer than 2.5 goals

The common belief is that any game involving the Seasiders is sure to yield a decent amount of goals, but the figures above suggest that anyone expecting a glut of goals this weekend may be disappointed.

• The most common home results for Blackpool this season are 2-1 and 1-0 wins, each occuring 17% of the time
• The most common away result for Crystal Palace this season is a 1-0 win, occuring 31% of the time

A close game could be on the cards based on the stats above, with the odd goal likely to separate the two sides. Getting the first goal could be crucial for both sides.

• John Fleck will become the 28th player to make a league appearance for Blackpool this season if he features on Saturday

Fleck arrives on loan from Rangers until the end of the season, but with a lot of competition for places, it’s hard to know where he will fit in to Ian Holloway’s team.

• Crystal Palace have not drawn a game away from home this season

This curious stat is most likely at the heart of Palace’s strong away record this season, as when they have picked up a result on the road it’s been the maximum three points.

3. The Key Men

Blackpool – Barry Ferguson

The ‘Pool captain has been suspended for the last three games, and despite the midfield doing well in his absence, one would expect the influential Scot to return. Angel Martinez, who has occupied Barry Ferguson’s role at the base of the midfield, is most likely to make way. Ferguson has been quietly effective all season and his experience and resolve in the middle of the park could be crucial against a well-organised Crystal Palace side.

Crystal Palace – Nathaniel Clyne

Palace may have a difficult job hanging onto Nathaniel Clyne during the January transfer window, with a move to Manchester United being rumoured for the young right-back. For the time being though, he remains at Selhurst Park and Dougie Freedman will be hoping Clyne has recovered from a virus to appear this weekend. At only 20 Clyne has already made over 100 appearances for Palace and has been a big part of the club’s focus on youth.

Blackpool – Kevin Phillips

Last weekend Ian Holloway’s introduction of Elliot Grandin and Kevin Phillips helped rescue a point with the two combining for both Blackpool goals, scoring one apiece. It was a timely reminder of Phillips’ abilities given the injury to Lomana Lua Lua, and is a shot across the bow of those who had begun to write him off. Phillips remains Blackpool’s top scorer this season and has been unfortunate to spend so much time on the bench. Even if Phillips does not replace Lua Lua in the starting XI, Holloway knows that the veteran can be called upon to pop up with a goal if needed.

Crystal Palace – Wilfried Zaha

Another graduate of the Crystal Palace treasured youth system, Wilfried Zaha has committed himself to the club by recently signing a five and a half year contract. A tricky forward, Zaha has been a revelation during the last 18 months racking up 75 professional appearances. The Seventy Two has identified Zaha as often being an ‘out ball’ for Palace, with excellent close control and the ability to hold up the ball. The inclusion of Zaha may force Holloway’s hand when picking his defence – pace at the back could be key for ‘Pool.

• Blackpool are 8th in the form table based on the last six matches, winning two, drawing three and losing one
• Crystal Palace are 5th in the form table based on the last six matches, winning three, drawing one and losing two

Both teams come into the weekend’s fixture in good, if not electrifying, form. Crystal Palace just have the edge on ‘Pool, taking 10 points from their last six matches as opposed to nine points for the Seasiders.

• Blackpool are unbeaten in their last five home games, last losing at Bloomfield Road against Nottingham Forest on 22nd October
• Crystal Palace have the 7th best away record in the Championship, winning 46% of their away games this season

Saturday is likely to be a stiff test for Blackpool, with Palace possessing an away record Ian Holloway could only dream of. However, Blackpool are the 4th best team on their own ground in the Championship and will start as favourites.

One key component not yet mentioned that may be a deciding factor in the outcome of Saturday’s game is the small matter of a League Cup semi-final 2nd leg that awaits Palace just days after this match. With a 1-0 lead to defend at the Cardiff City Stadium in mid-week, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility to suspect Palace may have their eye off the ball. The other way of looking at this is that Saturday provides players a chance to stake their claim for a place against Cardiff, but distraction may be a bigger factor.

A relatively low-scoring game is predicted by the stats, and as such I’ll go for a 2-0 win for the Seasiders.

Blackpool had slightly the better of the opening 45 minutes, but in some ways the first half display typified their season so far. At various times there were strong indications that ‘Pool had enough about them to force a result in the game, but promise and frustration were both there in equal measure, embodied best in the performance of Lomana Lua Lua. A lively forward line of Tom Ince, Matt Phillips and Lua Lua were causing problems for the visitors, but the final pass or shot were often lacking for the Seasiders to take the lead.

Fortunately for the hosts, the deadlock was broken soon after the restart and from that point on it was a fairly one-sided game, as Middlesbrough struggled to deal with a ‘Pool side with the momentum the goal had given them. As with a lot of Blackpool games this season, one could sense that the first goal, without wanting to sound too obvious, would be a hugely deciding factor. Once Blackpool go behind, they can find it difficult to break down teams who go into their shell, unless they hit back quickly as they did in the first clash with Boro this season.

Upon scoring the first goal however, Blackpool can, and did on Monday, look like a team that will take some stopping. The problem until now has been finding that form on a regular basis. If Ian Holloway can get his team playing in this way more consistently, the path to promotion will not seem quite as daunting.

Going back to the start of this campaign, few would have predicted a midfield to start the new calendar year consisting of Chris Basham, Ludo Sylvestre and Angel Martinez. However, Monday’s performance showed it is a viable option as the three blended well in a return to a flatter midfield unit at the heart of the Blackpool side. Angel acted as the pivot at the base of the midfield, with Basham usually to the right of him and Sylvestre to the left.

It has been a strange first six months in English football for Angel, appearing and then quickly disappearing again at seemingly random intervals during the season. On the evidence of Monday’s game though, Angel could be a reliable player who can be called upon in the absence of Barry Ferguson, and perhaps even push for his place given time. Angel does not look to be a particularly fancy player, but is happy with the ball at his feet and simply move the ball on its way with minimal fuss, even looking to receive the ball from the goalkeeper on occasion.

A couple of misplaced passes early on from Sylvestre aside, the midfield three worked the ball well, often in neat triangles. Often the aim was to work the ball out to the wide players, but they were just as happy to play between the lines when Lua Lua dropped a little deeper in search of the ball. Defensively, the three also gave Middlesbrough little time on the ball and hunted in packs to win the ball back, allowing ‘Pool to then counter-attack, which they did particularly well in the second half.

A strong man of the match contender, it was an especially good performance from Basham. Since starting the game at Southampton, he has had a strong case to get a run in the side and this latest outing only solidifies the argument. In the absence of Keith Southern, Basham is a not too dissimilar replacement and a highly able one at that. Tenacious in the middle of the pitch, Basham has many excellent attributes and the match against Middlesbrough showed that his inclusion in midfield does not necessarily mean ‘Pool are set up in a defensive manner as he covered significant ground. With Southern still to return, and Ferguson banned for a further two games, it would now be surprising to see any other midfield combination take the field in the next league match at Ipswich.

Back in November when the two sides met at the Riverside, Middlesbrough were a much more impressive team than the one we saw on Monday. That day it was a front two of Marvin Emnes and Scott McDonald that proved a real handful for ‘Pool, but with that partnership split up the visiting side did not pose nearly the same threat. A hamstring injury to Emnes in December has meant the Dutchman is still to regain full fitness and as such a place on the bench was the best Tony Mowbray could offer him – much to the relief of the Blackpool defence.

Exactly what formation Middlesbrough employed is up for debate – Ian Holloway and the Boro official site’s match report both agreed they had set up in a 3-5-2, but this was far from clear on the day. The tactical brains over at Tangerine Dreaming posted a photo of how they pictured the visitors’ line-up, but whatever system they did use, they were second best in most areas of the pitch. All three Blackpool forwards did well in picking the ball up in deep areas and running at the Boro defence. As the space opened up for ‘Pool in the second half, Middlesbrough virtually crumbled and could not handle the pace and directness of the home side.

Again though, it wasn’t necessarily all one-way traffic and Middlesbrough still did show glimpses of their ability in the first half with a few moments of concern for ‘Pool, but largely it is a game they will sooner forget. On the back of a congested festive period Blackpool cannot be the easiest of teams to play and the result merely served to highlight that it is still all to play for at the top of the Championship as we enter the second half of the season. Both sides will have upward ambitions, and you wouldn’t bet against one or even both being in the mix-up come May.

The Christmas period saw the surprise debut of Mark Howard at Barnsley following an injury to Matt Gilks, and it is an opportunity that the former Aberdeen and St Mirren keeper has grabbed with both hands. Coming in out of the blue, Howard has shown none of the nerves one might reasonably expect under the circumstances, turning in some calm and confident performances. Howard enjoyed a fine debut at Oakwell and was able to notch his first clean sheet against Middlesbrough which should serve to give him a further boost.

Not a great deal was asked of Howard on Monday, but what he had to do he did well, and in one crucial moment was able to force Scott McDonald wide when it seemed a goal was almost inevitable. It’s still only early days of course, but his initial performances have been far beyond the expectations anyone could have had of him. A deal until the summer at least is now surely a priority with his short-term contract at the club almost at an end. Howard is clearly a capable understudy for Gilks and could even be a factor in influencing the former Rochdale man’s high performance levels.

Another player who has enjoyed a superb Christmas is Matt Phillips. Having opened his account for the season with a hat-trick at Barnsley, it was encouraging to see him follow that up with his first home goal of the season against Middlesbrough. Phillips is an uncomplicated player and by keeping things simple and maximising the most out of his raw pace he is able to terrorise Championship defenders. The confidence is now clearly flowing and it is to be hoped that the goals continue to come, as they did in abundance during his loan spell at Sheffield United.

In his pre-match press conference, Ian Holloway hinted that in order to combat the way Watford play, he may play an extra striker. In light of these comments, it was no surprise then that it was Chris Basham who was left out in order to accommodate the return of Lomana Lua Lua. Holloway was apologetic about this decision when announcing his team to the sponsor’s lounge before the game, stating that Basham was extremely unlucky to miss out after an impressive performance at Southampton last week. It was a big call, and in hindsight one that the manager got wrong.

Gary Taylor-Fletcher once more dropped deeper, as he has done many times this season with questionable levels of success. The idea is obviously to employ a 4-2-1-3 formation, but Taylor-Fletcher all too often finds himself too high up the pitch, resulting in the side often resembling a 4-2-4. The number of short passes in midfield was vastly reduced from the previous weekend, despite the best efforts of Ludo Sylvestre who needed more help in trying to pass through the visitors.

One even wonders whether Taylor-Fletcher is happy to play in this role, with body language at times on Saturday suggesting he would rather be playing as part of the forward three. Not only did Taylor-Fletcher drift forward to form a front four, he could regularly be seen pointing at others to drop in for him when he advanced. Some weeks a rotation of this makeshift front four is clearly visible, but it was less evident against Watford, giving the impression the front line were not asked to regularly rotate with Taylor-Fletcher. As a consequence, Blackpool often seemed outnumbered in midfield which led to a slightly longer passing game compared to what has been on offer during the last month or so.

Quite simply, the balance of the team with Taylor-Fletcher in the hole does not look right, and it is a little concering that ‘Pool are having to use the former Huddersfield man in this way as regularly as they do. The nigh-on 4-2-4 is not bringing the best out of the player or the team, and perhaps it is something that should be Plan B or C, rather than the way Holloway sets up his side as default.

For all the disappointment at dropping two points on Saturday, Blackpool were unlucky not to go ahead on the back of their first half chances, hitting the post twice – firstly after a splendid run and shot from Matt Phillips, and again shortly afterwards through Lua Lua. Watford did have their moments too in the opening 45 minutes, but any neutral would likely have said that ‘Pool had done more of the two teams to forge a half-time advantage,

However, the massively disappointing aspect from a Blackpool perspective is that it seemed like there was too much complacency. It is almost as if it was expected that the goal would come, when the plan should have been to force it through changes in either tactics or personnel. As the largely dismal second half wore on, it wasn’t until the 67th minute that Holloway sought to alter his team. Even then, it was a fairly like-for-like substitution with Kevin Phillips replacing the frustrating Lua Lua.

With just over 10 minutes to go, the next change saw Billy Clarke replace a tiring Sylvestre, but this only served to weaken the midfield further. Clarke joined the action in the midfield, but at this point there were effectively ‘Pool five strikers on the pitch, regardless of where they were supposed to be playing. It would surely have made more sense for Basham or Angel Martinez to be deployed in midfield if Sylvestre needed to be withdrawn.

One wonders whether Holloway maybe backed himself into a corner with his team selection, and he was worried that bringing on an out-and-out midfielder may have seemed negative. Giving the team an extra dimension by reverting to a more orthodox 4-3-3 may have been the key to unlocking Watford, but the manager chose to stick with the same set-up, with which a resolute visiting side had got to grips with more easily in the second half.

Since joining on a free transfer in October, Lomana Lua Lua has quickly established himself as something of a fan favourite on the Fylde coast, mainly influenced perhaps by his breakthrough performance in the 5-0 victory at Elland Road. Personally though, I have yet to be convinced by his all-round game and Saturday was another example of how he can be such a frustrating player.

What lets Lua Lua down is this – while he can produce the odd moment of magic, he does not do the simple things well. Over the course of match, players are required to do many more simple things than complex ones, and it can be infuriating when a player repeatedly cedes possession by trying to be too clever when a more straightforward option is available.

Lua Lua did have his moment of excitement when he was denied by the post, but beyond that there was little he did to impress and should probably have been substituted earlier than he was. Currently there seems to be a mixture of players who aren’t in the team and possibly deserve to be, and others who are regulars in the team when they haven’t perhaps done enough to merit that right. I dare say Lua Lua belongs to that second category at the moment, and more concentration when asked to do the simple things would help him warrant his place.

4. Welcome back Matt Phillips

Perhaps one of the biggest disappointments from the weekend was that the performance of Matt Phillips did not earn his team three points. Awarded the man of the match by the sponsors, his display against Watford was arguably his best 90 minute performance since joining the club in August 2010.

Phillips looked full of confidence, running at defenders time and time again – his major strength which puts fear into other teams and memorably tore apart the Manchester City left-back Aleksandar Kolarov almost a year ago. Phillips was also desperately unlucky not to open the scoring when his first half shot came back off the upright after running with the ball from his own half.

With so many players eager to stake their claim for a starting place, one did wonder how long Holloway would perservere with Matt Phillips, but it now looks like the extended run in side is paying off. Tom Ince should still feel aggrieved that he has had to wait, but the former Liverpool youngster will probably now have to bide his time until Callum McManaman returns to Wigan before winning his place back.

Blackpool drew 2-2 with Southampton on their third televised league outing of the season, making it won one, drawn one and lost one in front of the cameras. Here are my observations from Saturday’s match:

It was always likely to be a tough game for Blackpool’s back four at St Mary’s, coming up against a team who had won all their matches on home turf this season. The return of Rickie Lambert to the starting line-up after injury only served to ramp up the difficulty. The way Southampton sought to exploit Blackpool’s defence can be explained by the diagrams below.

Blackpool had the better of the first 10 minutes, but Southampton did find their feet and in the example below caused issues for the Seasiders. Notice how many white shirts are tightly packed, and Southampton use this to their advantage by passing out wide and delivering a dangerous cross.

Shortly afterwards, Southampton once again forced the Blackpool defence very narrow, creating huge swathes of space on the flanks to be exploited.

Not long after the hosts had taken the lead, Rickie Lambert almost made it 2-0, but for an excellent save from Matt Gilks. The image below shows Ian Evatt charging out of defence a little too rashly, with the Southampton forwards poised to pounce.

The effect of Evatt’s decision to rush to the ball is even more visible in the image below, showing the same situation from a side angle. On this image, you can see how Lambert has peeled off the back of Neal Eardley, with Lallana completely unmarked on the Saints’ left. Evatt’s movement towards the ball has seen the defence shift out of position, with ‘Pool fortunate not to concede a second and be out of the game with just half an hour or so on the clock.

Neal Eardley, who has been a target of a not insignificant section of Blackpool support in his time with the club, had a moment to forget for his part in the opening goal of the afternoon. Gilks played a regulation short ball out to him, but a poor first touch led to Eardley being too easily dispossessed before the ball found its way to Lambert who scored via a Cathcart deflection. It was sloppy play from the right-back, but at the same time one wonders if he received a shout of man-on from his teammates – if he did, he certainly didn’t react to it.

It wasn’t just Evatt and Eardley who had a bad day at the office – neither Cathcart nor Stephen Crainey will be satisfied with their performances either. Crainey struggled for much of the game to handle Morgan Schneiderlin, and for the last minute Lambert goal, Cathcart afforded the former ‘Pool trainee too much space for a player as good in the air as he is. Visiting top of the league, the Blackpool defence wobbled, but thankfully for them, it’s another away game at a top team out of the way.

Ludo Sylvestre finally broke into Ian Holloway’s team away at Leeds, and after the Millwall game which followed it I commented on how the flatter ‘Pool midfield was based around Barry Ferguson as a pivot point. With Keith Southern’s health concerns, Holloway reverted to using Gary Taylor-Fletcher at the tip of a midfield three in recent weeks, the success of which is up for debate. After the 1-0 win over Reading, I floated the idea of Chris Basham or Angel Martinez being brought in alongside Ferguson and Sylvestre, particularly for away games. Holloway did exactly that and Basham won his first midfield start of the season – his only other start came at right-back away at Brighton.

During his 15 month Blackpool career so far, Basham has suffered with a string of injuries, before being cast in the rather unfortunate role of utility man. On the few occasions Basham has got into the side, it has typically been as cover for an injury or suspension, which has seen the former Bolton man back out of the side when the player he replaced is available. Danny Coid proved over the course of a decade that being a utility man, while handy for the manager, is not always a blessing for the player himself. Coid too was no stranger to the treatment table, and when fit struggled to nail down any particular place for any length of time.

Chris Basham will be hoping he can avoid falling into the same trap, and his performance on Saturday lunchtime was a massive step in the right direction. Presumably brought in to give the Blackpool midfield more solidity, it was unexpected at just how well Basham got forward. Aside from his goal, Basham worked his way into the Southampton box on a number of other occasions and does appear an attacking aerial threat, as commented upon following the 2-0 defeat at Leicester. Until Southern or Elliot Grandin return to full fitness, Basham represents a genuine alternative in midfield, which before the weekend did not seem to be an option the manager was seriously considering.

3. …but doesn’t survive the substitutions.

With ‘Pool leading 2-1, Ian Holloway opted to make some changes in the closing stages of the game. Kevin Phillips joined the action to a chorus of boos from the home supporters, clearly not fondly remembered for his time at Southampton, replacing Callum McManaman. A few minutes later Chris Basham also departed the field for Lomana Lua Lua, which following some criticism has since been explained as the midfielder apparently carrying a knock, as well as Holloway being eager to take him off after his full-blooded challenge on Dan Harding, which on another day may have earned him more than just a yellow card.

At this point, the shape of the side did crumble a little. The first substitution looked like ‘Pool may have switched to a 4-4-2 with Kevin Phillips and Taylor-Fletcher up front, but then the second change saw Taylor-Fletcher drop a bit deeper, with ‘Pool then operating a 4-3-3-cum-4-2-4. Given how the Seasiders had closed out the game against Reading by going to a more compact midfield, it was more than a little surprising that the more defensively-minded Angel was not brought on to replace Basham.

This is not to say that Blackpool were completely overrun in the final 10 minutes or so. Southampton pushing for equaliser, combined with the Blackpool changes in both tactics and personnel, served to stretch the game, with the match turning into an end-to-end affair. Indeed, one could easily argue that the visitors should have killed off the game, spurning good chances on the break with Taylor-Fletcher one notable culprit. However, the puzzling decision to change tactics of how to hold onto a lead from one game to the next invites a few questions, and having done it successfully the previous week, it was disappointing in the end to drop two points with Lambert’s late goal.

The equalising goal was sickeningly late from a Blackpool point of view, but it’s hard to deny that Southampton deserved something for their part in an entertaining game. Once again Blackpool came to rely on Matt Gilks to bail them out of some dangerous situations, and the hosts kept going right until the final whistle, and may have been disappointed themselves not to take all three points, wasting a four-on-two overload just after scoring their late equaliser.

Nigel Adkins has done a sterling job since taking the reins at Southampton and has seemingly fully justified his decision to drop down a division when he swapped Scunthorpe for the south coast last year – the Iron now find themselves struggling at the wrong end of League One, 43 league places below Adkins’ current side. Southampton are a side filled with good footballers all over the pitch, although goalkeeper Bartosz Bialkowski starting his first league game for two years had a well-publicised afternoon to forget.

Saints may have surrendered some ground to their rivals in recent weeks, but with flexible wide players like Schneiderlin and Adam Lallana and a front two of Lambert and Guly do Prado, they look well placed to cement an automatic promotion place. Their strength at home was visible even when a defeat looked on the cards, and it is the teams that rescue results at the end of games that typically go on to do well.